There were fireworks when UNC’s name appeared on screen as the last at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels, six-time national champions, faced scrutiny over their unexpected tournament berth. A 1-12 record against Quad 1 opponents all but ensured that their selection would incite controversy. Even the likes of West Virginia and Indiana, who had stronger resumes on paper, were left watching from home. It’s Hubert Davis’s team, therefore, that has to face the San Diego State Aztecs in the First Four.
The San Diego State Aztecs and North Carolina Tar Heels face off Saturday in what should be a thrilling showcase for the final spot in the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket. They both come in as No. 11 seeds, but it’s difficult to find more contrasting play styles. The Aztecs want to get back and make a legitimate run after years of March Madness success. Whereas UNC is merely content to have made it this far despite a year of doubt and vying to prove they deserve it. Here is what to expect from both teams, their key players, and what could ultimately determine who moves on.
A Clash of styles: San Diego’s defense vs North Carolina’s offense
San Diego State enters the tournament with a 21-9 (14-6 Mountain West) record. The Aztecs consistently shut down teams. They allow just 63.6 points per game on that end of the floor, and opponents hit just 37.8% of their shots from the field against SDSU. Forget about the Mountain West; those numbers rank 14th and 2nd in the entire nation, respectively.
They can also beat the best of the best, as evidenced by their big wins over Houston and Creighton in their non-conference schedule. Despite their defensive dominance, the Aztecs’ recent 53-52 loss to Boise State underscores their vulnerability.
UNC (22-13, 13-7 ACC), meanwhile, hardly squeaked into the field as the tournament’s “last team in,” per the selection committee. The Tar Heels have been uneven, having won eight of their past 10 games. But with both losses coming to Duke. Yet their record against the game’s hardest competition — only 1-12 against Quadrant 1 teams — raises a serious red flag about North Carolina’s ability to hang with a team of San Diego State’s quality.
This matchup is sizing up to be a battle of styles and whichever team imposes its will could come out on top. San Diego State thrives in slow, defensive games when they can impose their will on teams with their lockdown defense. Ranking 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency has helped them get big wins in this NCAA Tournament against high-scoring teams like Creighton and Houston, who the Aztecs have held to well under their points per game average. UNC, meanwhile, likes to play fast. The Tar Heels rank in the 85th percentile in transition frequency and are averaging 80 points per game, good for 32nd nationally. They have shot an impressive 42% from 3-point range in the past month. North Carolina will push the tempo, seek open perimeter shots, and capitalize on transition opportunities.
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“The Aztecs rank sixth nationally in points per possession and athleticism to defend isolation action and the pick-and-roll.” @Ky_3MW pic.twitter.com/Wu4FBKTszm
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) March 18, 2025
One major storyline in the game will be the return of San Diego State’s 7-foot center, Magoon Gwath. Having missed nearly a month with a knee injury, Gwath is expected to return for the Aztecs’ most important game of the year. Gwath, the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year, leads his team in many defensive categories. He’s recording 2.6 blocks per game and also leads the team with a 3.51 defensive Bayesian performance rating. His rim protection also will be particularly acute against a UNC guard-heavy roster. The top four scoring Tar Heels on the team are all guards under 6-foot-4, meaning they are that much more susceptible to the interior defense for San Diego State.
Key players to watch Here are the probable starters for both teams:
San Diego State Aztecs:
Nick Boyd (13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg)
BJ Davis (9.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg)
Miles Byrd (12.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg)
Jared Coleman-Jones (7.3 ppg, 5.1 RPG)
Magoon Gwath (8.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.6 bpg)
North Carolina Tar Heels:
Elliot Cadeau (9.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg)
RJ Davis (17.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg)
Drake Powell (7.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg)
Ven-Allen Lubin (8.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg)
Jae’Lyn Withers (6.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg)
How Aztecs’ defense can be the key to upsetting UNC?
It looks like San Diego State’s defense is specially designed to take away the strengths of North Carolina’s offense. The Aztecs excel in defending the three-point line, holding teams to just 30.2 percent from deep, and they also are elite in protecting the rim. Those two aspects of their defense directly counter what UNC tries to do offensively — they shoot from the outside and look to score quickly in transition.
Credit: Imago
The turnover battle could also be worth watching. San Diego State is generating 15.2 turnovers per game. With UNC averaging 14.1 turnovers during its last five games, the Aztecs could have an opportunity to capitalize off those mistakes. If San Diego State can turn those turnovers into fast-break points, it could play a pivotal role in the contest.
While UNC is the favorite on paper, San Diego State has all the pieces to eat up the Tar Heels’ offense. Gwath’s return couldn’t be better timed. The Aztecs are getting their best defender back when they need him most. And the team’s perimeter-blitzing defense will likely cause many problems for the Tar Heels’ shooters from beyond the arc. Plus, North Carolina has struggled against tougher teams all season, highlighted by its 1-12 record against Quadrant 1 teams. A team like San Diego State that will match its intensity and defense will likely cause a lot of trouble for the Tar Heels.
Criticism over UNC’s selection has been relentless, and a loss here would only validate their doubters. On the other hand, SDSU is looking to remind the world that their 2023 title game run wasn’t a fluke. One team is playing for validation; the other, for dominance. That’s what makes this matchup must-watch basketball.
If UNC can’t break free from the Aztecs’ physical defense, their tournament run will be over before it begins. SDSU, built for March success, could once again prove why defensive teams thrive in do-or-die games.
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