Jack Draper has made history, reaching his first-ever Masters 1000 semifinal. Now, he faces a daunting challenge: two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz. Draper, driven by ambition, stated, “I’m never content with anything. I always want to have more wins and more opportunities to play top players.” A victory against Alcaraz would propel him into the Top 10. However, defeating Alcaraz at his favored Indian Wells won’t be easy. Even Alcaraz acknowledges Draper as a ‘tough opponent.’ Will Alcaraz maintain his dominance, or will Draper upset the odds?
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper: Preview
Carlos Alcaraz won a title in Rotterdam earlier this season. However, other than that, his longest runs before the Indian Wells were reaching the QFs in Melbourne and Doha. Here, he has already gone a step further, and currently, he’s all set to compete in his ninth ATP Masters 1000 SF. Alcaraz defeated Argentine star Francisco Cerundolo by 6-3,7-6(4) in the QF. With this win, he is now on a 16-match winning streak in Indian Wells.
Tennis – Australian Open – Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia – January 21, 2022 Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz in action during his third round match against Italy’s Matteo Berrettini REUTERS/Morgan Sette
Jack Draper’s best record in this season was reaching the final at the 2025 Qatar Open. In Indian Wells, Draper defeated the big-serving American, Ben Shelton, on a cold and blustery evening by a 6-4,7-5 margin in the QF. Before defeating Shelton, he had also outclassed two more Americans, Taylor Fritz and Jenson Brooksby in the R16.
Alcaraz vs Draper: Head-to-Head
Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper have met each other four times in their careers so far. Currently, the Spaniard has a 3-1 lead over the Brit in the H2H record. This will be their second meeting in Indian Wells.
2025 Australian Open R16: Alcaraz 7-5,6-1 (RET).
2024 London/Queen’s Club R16: Draper 7-6(3),6-3.
2023 ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells R16: Alcaraz 6-2,2-0 (RET).
2022 Basel R32: Alcaraz 3-6,6-2,7-5.
Prediction: Alcaraz will win this match in three sets
Jack Draper has been in a ‘Giant-Slaying’ mode at the tournament, but will he dare to challenge the ‘lion’ in his own ‘den’? Carlos Alcaraz has an extraordinary record in this tournament. These slow surfaces suit his game perfectly, and he knows how to win battles in tricky situations in these conditions.
Other than that, even if we take a look at their numbers from this season, Alcaraz (3) currently has a win-loss record of 15-3, and a win in this match would help him close the gap with Alexander Zverev, who is currently sitting in the second spot. On the other hand, Draper (14) has a win-loss record of 11-3 in 2025.
Now, shifting our focus to their playing styles, Jack Draper, who is a natural right-hander but plays with his left hand, is known for his powerful baseline game, thunderous serve, and good touch around the net, making him a versatile and aggressive player. He is also known for his ability to come forward and finish points at the net. His left-handed serve, particularly the sliced serve, is a key weapon, known as the ‘can opener’ for its ability to curve and slice off the court. Jack Draper is also known for his athleticism and for bringing in incredible variation in his game.
Conversely, Carlos Alcaraz is known for his aggressive, all-court style, characterized by a powerful forehand, a reliable backhand, and a variety of shots, including effective drop shots and net play. He is often seen trying to hit a lot of winners with the help of his strong and precise forehand shots. Alcaraz loves pushing his opponents further back on the court into a defensive position before coming up with his picture-perfect drop shots. I’m expecting to see him taking a similar approach in this match as well.
If Alcaraz wins this match, then he’d get one step closer to becoming the youngest player to win three consecutive singles titles at any ATP Tour event — and just the third to do it at Indian Wells after Roger Federer (2004-06) and Novak Djokovic (2014-16). So, there is a lot at stake for the Spaniard at the moment, and I feel his incredible resilience will help him overcome this hurdle in the SF.
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