The 2025 NCAA Tournament is underway! Down in Lexington, Kentucky, the stage is set at Rupp Arena for the 9 vs. 8 game between the Louisville Cardinals and Creighton Bluejays. A tale of two different seasons. In one corner, we have the Cardinals, fresh off a storybook season under first-year head coach Pat Kelsey; turning a horrific 8-24 team into a ACC juggernaut. In another corner, we have the Creighton Bluejays, making their fifth consecutive appearance in the Big Dance. Who will rise to the occasion?
The stage is set for this contest 70 miles away from Louisville’s campus, giving them a slight home-court advantage. Historically, Creighton has the 2-1 edge over the Cardinals in NCAA Tournament play, but this year’s matchup is bound to be a lot closer.
Louisville’s comeback vs Creighton’s experience
The 8th-seeded Louisville Cardinals are one of the biggest surprise stories in college basketball this season. A year after going a disastrous 8-24, they have turned that mark completely around, finishing the year with 27 wins and an ACC runner-up finish. They’d also make their first-ever conference championship appearance, only falling to Duke 73-62. With 45.4 shooting percent from the field, 33.0 percent from the three-point line, Louisville ranks 29th in offensive rating; 5 spots better than their 1st round opponents. An even better team defensively, the Cardinals will look to rely on Chucky Hepburn to lead the efforts in limiting Ryan Kalkbrenner.
On the flip side, the Creighton Bluejays enter the tournament as seasoned participants. This marks their 10th NCAA Tournament appearance in the last 14 years. So they are no stranger to the pressures of the postseason. Ending as runner-ups in the Big East standings, while also being commanded by veteran coach Greg McDermott, the Bluejays look well-balanced, thanks in part to Kalkbrenner. The 7-foot-1 center has been a beast inside this season. He leads Creighton in scoring on a league-best 66.3% shooting, but also in rebounding and blocked shots.
Here’s a look at the projected lines.
Louisville Cardinals:
Chucky Hepburn (16.2 ppg, 5.8 apg)
Terrence Edwards Jr. (16.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg)
Reyne Smith (13.4 ppg, 38.3% 3PT)
J’Vonne Hadley (12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg)
James Scott (6.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg)
Creighton Bluejays:
Steven Ashworth (16.3 ppg, 6.8 apg)
Pop Isaacs (14.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg)
Jamiya Neal (11.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg)
Jackson McAndrew (8.2 ppg, 42.1% 3PT)
Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.4 ppg, 8.8 RPG)
Both teams are heavily dependent on the three-point shot and both make 9.4 threes per game on average (ranking 44th). Louisville attempts more threes overall, but Creighton has been more selective and efficient. Louisville also gets Reyne Smith (38.3% 3pt) back in the rotation, giving the Cardinals another deep threat from outside.
Can Creighton pull of an upset against Louisville? What are the predictions saying?
Despite Louisville being the favorite, Creighton has many advantages that could play a role in the upset. Kalkbrenner’s frame and ability to patrol the paint could be huge for Creighton, while Ashworth will be covering the deep. The latter is something the Cards struggled with during their loss to Duke in the ACC championship game; both offensively and defensively– 26.9% to Blue Devils’ 37%. So they better watch out.
Dec 31, 2024; Omaha, Nebraska, USA; Creighton Bluejays center Ryan Kalkbrenner (11) celebrates with guard Jamiya Neal (5) and forward Mason Miller (13) after a basket against the St. John’s Red Storm during the second half at CHI Health Center Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images
Further, SportsLine’s computer simulation likes Creighton in this matchup. But ESPN, KenPom, and Torvick, all lean towards the Cardinals with 60% or higher from the latter two.
Can Louisville continue their fairytale run? Will the battle against hardened Creighton show why they’ve had so much success in the tournament? Either way, it could make up for a dramatic matchup.
The post 2025 March Madness First Round: Louisville vs Creighton Lineups, Preview & Prediction appeared first on EssentiallySports.
