Keep biases and persuasions as a fan aside. Travis Hunter’s Heisman triumph was a red-letter day in the history of College Football. A lot of partisan notions, both fair and prejudicial, got dispelled when he stood upon that podium. For instance, his win cut through the building narrative that the Heisman has transitioned into a quarterback award. Even the narrative that it can’t be won by a player outside the SEC or Big 10. Unfortunately for Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty, it wasn’t him thwarting these narratives. Alas, he can still take solace from leading a G5 program all the way to the playoffs as he looks ahead to the NFL. But he’s first got to navigate the entry to the rave, the draft. Jeanty’s draft process has, for the most part, been straightforward. But as we enter the home stretch, one insider has thrown a spanner in the works. A 6’4, 332lb spanner at that.
According to the Chinese, 2024 was the Year of the Dragon. Over in America, though, it was the year of the running back. The tethering position has been resuscitated back into vogue. In the pros, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry became massive flag-bearers for a return to prominence for tailbacks. On the collegiate level, Ashton Jeanty epitomized this upturn. This has led to a recalibration of the NFL hivemind around the draft value of RBs. Conventional wisdom has dictated that running backs don’t offer enough value to be lottery picks, due to their lower shelf-life relative to other positions. But this cycle, front offices seem more open to drafting them early. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs set a precedent that Ashton Jeanty will seemingly follow. But while he’ll come off the board early, the exact franchise Jeanty will get drafted to is a little more uncertain now.
Most analysts and draftniks have Ashton Jeanty heading to the Las Vegas Raiders with the 6th overall pick. There’s a strong rationale to support this. New head coach Pete Carroll is no spring chicken. He’s here to spark and facilitate instant success. Success stems from the backfield. The Raiders have traded for a QB in Geno Smith, and he now needs a complementary piece. Jeanty is one of the best RB prospects in years, and they’ve got the draft position as well as the need. As hyperbolic as it sounds, Jeanty really could be Carroll’s new Marshawn Lynch. Beast Mode, reincarnated. While tailbacks have shorter careers and even shorter primes, it’s not as if Coach Carroll is there to build a 10-year project. This pick makes too much sense, and the reasoning is watertight. However, Yahoo Sports’ Jason Fitz has presented an alternative route the Raiders could go down.
Speaking over Inside Coverage, Jason Fitz brought forth two facets at play. One, Pete Carroll tended to trade down while in charge of the Seahawks. But let’s keep that one on the back burner for now. Two, new GM John Spytek has a history of prioritizing the O-line. Something Fitz pulled from Spytek’s time in Tampa Bay. From this hypothesis, Fitz came to a fascinating conclusion. “The closer we get to the draft, the more I wonder if [Armand Membou] is actually going to be the pick. [Wonder] if it’s going to be an offensive lineman, because they need help,” he remarked. By all accounts, Ashton Jeanty to the Raiders has been pretty much a lock. Since we’re talking Vegas, let’s contextualize this using the sportsbooks. Jeanty’s a -125 favorite to land with the franchise. But Fitz is correct that the O-line needs help, and Armand Membou is a very enticing prospect in his own right.
Coming out of Mizzou, Armand Membou gave SEC pass-rushers fits in college. Primarily a right tackle in college, there has been discourse about moving him over to the left. Since that’s the more important of the two sides, protecting the blindside of right-handed quarterbacks. If Membou is able to make that transition in the NFL, he warrants going as high as 6th overall. Anybody who needs to be sold on this force of nature can look at his 40-yard dash at the Combine. Tremors were felt at Lucas Oil Stadium as this 332lb man mountain ran a sub-5 second dash. 4.91, to be exact. All while screaming across the finish line. This is a special talent who can rub shoulders with Ashton Jeanty. Considering how tackles play longer than running backs, the value in picking Membou instead is there even if he grades slightly lower. Jeanty can’t rest on his laurels just yet.
Now to bring that figurative pot we’d pushed to the back burner to the forefront. Pete Carroll’s knack for trading back picks for a greater volume of draft capital in return. Suspend disbelief and assume Jason Fitz is right. That the Raiders could trade the 6th pick, which is a very hot commodity after all. Who could they trade with? What makes this even more interesting is that there’s a world where they could trade the pick while still getting Membou.
Armand Membou’s rising draft stock could force Ashton Jeanty to the NFC North
Say the Raiders are supposedly having conversations around what kind of haul they can get in exchange for the 6th pick. Simultaneously, the Bears are probably having conversations centered around how they can draft Ashton Jeanty. Their own new HC Ben Johnson is notorious for how expansive his playbook is. Adding a potent RB to alleviate pressure off Caleb Williams is ideal. The Bears, who hold the 10th pick, have had very strong links to Jeanty. Even Jason Fitz said that’s what he sees transpire if the Raiders pick Armand Membou 6th overall. So that’s the straightforward scenario. Both teams stay where they are and draft their respective guys. However, the Raiders have so much leverage to exploit here.
If the Raiders trade with the Bears, they likely still can draft Membou 10th. Plus, they’d have raked in more draft capital and/or a player. If the Bears really are as desperate for Jeanty as reports suggest, they’d be willing to pay the premium as well. We’ve seen what David Montgomery can do in Ben Johnson’s offense. So picture his offense with Ashton Jeanty. Who, with all due respect, is a different tier of running back.
All of this is only applicable if the Raiders really are getting cold feet over Ashton Jeanty. Or were never really sold in the first place, and the reporting was smoke and mirrors. “I think the Raiders are a huge candidate to try and trade down if somebody wants to trade up for Ashton Jeanty,” explicitly said Jason Fitz. Will he wind up in Sin City or the Windy City? One team is in a division with a modern-day dynasty in the Chiefs. The other is in the toughest division in the league. One’s got a Super Bowl-winning veteran coach, the oldest in the NFL. The other has the hottest kid on the block. It’ll be fascinating to see how the chips fall on draft night.
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