After dethroning Coco Gauff to become the new world number three and America’s new number one, Jessica Pegula didn’t get off to a perfect start in the European clay-court swing. The 31-year-old made her way to Stuttgart after a title triumph in Charleston and a deep run in Miami, where she lost to the World number one Aryna Sabalenka in the final. But her campaign in Charleston was cut short by Ekaterina Alexandrova in the QF. The Russian handed Pegula an absolute thumping, beating her in straight sets 6-0, 6-4. Can Pegula now bounce back in Madrid, where she has been handed a challenging draw? Who might be her probable opponents on her road to the final? Let’s find out.
Jessica Pegula is someone who typically excels on hard courts. But in an interview previously, she said, “I know I’m known more for being a hard-court player…But I think I can do well on the clay, too. So hopefully, with some of those intangibles that I have added to my game, that can help me have a good clay season.” If we take a look at her record in Madrid, although she reached the final there in 2022, she was eliminated in the QF the following year. In 2024, she had to pull out of the Madrid Open due to an injury. Does she have a chance to make a longer run this time?
Well, Pegula has been handed a bye in the first round, and in the next round, she could possibly face the current number one German player, Eva Lys. Pegula has never faced this 23-year-old tennis star in her career. So this could be a tricky test for her to pass. If she wins this match, she may face the Tunisian star, Ons Jabeur, in the third round. Pegula currently trails Jabeur by a 2-4 margin in the H2H. They, in fact, met each other in the final of the 2022 Madrid Open, where Jabeur defeated her by 7-5,0-6,6-2.
In the next round, Pegula may cross paths with Ekaterina Alexandrova yet again. Alexandrova recently marked her fifth WTA Top 10 win (equaling most in 2025 with Mirra Andreeva and Madison Keys) with her 6-0,6-4 win over the American in the QF of the Stuttgart Open. Pegula currently has a 2-3 record against the Russian, and if these two lock horns again in Madrid, this would be their fourth meeting this season. Before Stuttgart, both of them crossed paths in Doha and Charleston as well.
In case Pegula manages to beat Alexandrova as well, who would she face in the next round? Well, the world number Elena Rybakina or the 2024 French Open finalist Jasmine Paolini (6) could be her opponent in the QF. Pegula has a 3-1 record against the Kazakhstani, while against Paolini, it has been a clean sweep (5-0). But we must not forget, Paolini recently made an SF run in Stuttgart, where she defeated Coco Gauff in the QF.
If Pegula reaches the SF in Madrid, she may face the current world number one, Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka has a 7-2 record against the American. Their most recent meeting came at the 2025 Miami Open final, where the Belarusian defeated Pegula by 7-5,6-2.
Should Pegula get past Sabalenka as well, her opponent in the final might be her compatriot Coco Gauff or the defending champion, Iga Swiatek. Pegula has a 4-2 edge over Gauff, but Swiatek, the Queen of Clay, is leading the head-to-head against Pegula by 6-4. In their last meeting (QF of the 2024 US Open), Pegula defeated Swiatek by 6-2,6-4. Although the Pole has struggled a bit with her performances in the recent past, she is always a threat on clay!
Jessica Pegula’s draw in Madrid :
F : Swiatek / Gauff
SF : Sabalenka / Zheng
QF : Paolini / Rybakina
R16 : Alexandrova / Kasatkina
R3 : Jabeur
R2 : Lys / qualifier
R1 : Bye pic.twitter.com/FlAbnDnSsP
— Camille (@tenniscamfr) April 20, 2025
Both Sabalenka and Swiatek, the top two players in the world, have previously heaped praise on Pegula for her incredible performances. But what does Pegula herself think of her performances over the last couple of years?
Drawing Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka examples, Jessica Pegula reveals her biggest strength
In February 2023, after the Doha final, Iga Swiatek took a moment to acknowledge the quality of Jessica Pegula. “I want to congratulate Jessica for singles, for doubles, for everything. You’re a really consistent player, everything you represent, it’s really great,” the Pole said back then.
Earlier this year, when Aryna Sabalenka extended her lead at the top of the WTA Rankings by beating Pegula at the Miami Open final, the Belarusian also highlighted how difficult it is to play against Pegula.
“I think every time we play against each other, it’s all about those few key points in each set. So it’s not like I’m winning it easily. It’s always a challenge playing her. But I know it’s tough to lose against one player all the time. I had this issue with Iga, so I know how it feels. But I think we all push each other to the next level, and we all improve from these tough lessons,” Sabalenka said.
Pegula herself shed light on her incredible consistency recently. “Very thankful that I’ve been able to be a top player for a few years now. Even though I might not have the biggest titles all the time, maybe compared to Aryna, Iga, someone like that, I feel like consistency is a strength that I have,” the Charleston Open champion remarked.
Pegula has already won two titles (the ATX Open and the Charleston Open) this year, and she has a win-loss record of 26-7. Can she keep her incredible form intact and come up with another stellar run in Madrid? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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