In the past fortnight or so, discourse around the NFL draft had begun to relax a little. At least pertaining to the first 6 picks. This was largely because there wasn’t much contention about how things will play out in that range. Every hypothetical explored and every ancillary rationale funneled into a consensus harmony. One of those rare instances in sport where people actually agreed. However, with T-72 hours left to the draft, the ante has been upped to 11. A fully vetted draft analyst has just relayed what an anonymous NFL GM told them which really throws a spanner in the works of the top 6 picks and, by proxy, the entire draft order. At the crux of this alarming bit of insider information is RB Ashton Jeanty.
Pick a random draftnik’s projections and you’d see the exact same pecking order. Cam Ward going first overall, followed by Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter at #2 and #3 respectively. That still largely holds up, but things directly following that are stood precariously. Jeanty, in particular, has been slated to go to the Las Vegas Raiders 6th overall throughout this process. It’s been a foregone conclusion more or less, with a fair amount of rationale to support it. But the draft is never as linear as that. Front offices and coaches almost intentionally put out fallacies to throw their contemporaries off. There have been smokescreens set for the entirety of this process. But as they now begin to dissipate, the knock-on effect could affect Ashton Jeanty most.
Raiders’ new HC Pete Carroll is no spring chicken. He certainly isn’t there to build a project that’ll pay dividends 10 years down the line. He’s there to instigate and facilitate immediate success. Success stems from the backfield. The Raiders have traded for a QB in Geno Smith, and he now needs a complementary running game. Jeanty is one of the best RB prospects in years, and so this marriage has made sense throughout. As hyperbolic as it sounds, Jeanty really could be Carroll’s new Marshawn Lynch. Beast Mode, reincarnated. This pick is valid and the reasoning is airtight. No wonder it’s been the chalk go-to pick in most predictions. Including Todd McShay’s. However, he and the rest of the football sphere have now been forced to recalibrate and reassess.
Guesting on The Rich Eisen Show, McShay said, “I had an interesting conversation with a GM the other day. ‘Stop being so narrow-minded with your thinking like everybody else seems to be right now. Think about it kind of outside the box.’ I think he, very specifically, was kind of talking about that [5-6] range of the draft. You’re plugging the same names in with the same teams. It’s always been [Mason] Graham five for Jacksonville. It’s always been [Ashton Jeanty] six to the Raiders, right? Maybe, what if it’s not? How does this thing look? Start to think like that.” That’s pretty self-explanatory. Analysts and draftniks, even fans, may have jumped the gun in earmarking Jeanty to the Raiders.
It’s difficult to make a justifiable argument that Jeanty could go earlier than 6th overall. Teams aren’t as needy and drafting a running back that high is ill-advised. Even one as good. Meaning a slide is very possibly coming. But whom to?
Ashton Jeanty’s potential slide past Pete Carroll’s Raiders won’t be too far back
In the grand scheme of things, Ashton Jeanty can rest on his laurels. Even if the final hierarchy of picks doesn’t pan out the way it’s been expected to all along, he doesn’t have a shortage of suitors. Running backs historically don’t present much value in the draft relative to other positions, due to their lower shelf-lives. But If Ashton Jeanty indeed gets passed on by Pete Carroll and the Raiders, he’d likely still wind up going within the top 10. Maybe even exactly 10th.
Adam Schefter reports that the Chicago Bears are “praying” Ashton Jeanty falls to them. Their own new head coach, Ben Johnson, is notorious for how expansive his playbook is. We’ve seen what David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs can do in Johnson’s offense in Detroit. So, Jeanty could really supercharge the Bears. For what it’s worth, he fits the Montgomery archetype of RB more than Gibbs. In addition to this, drafting a potent running back to alleviate pressure off QB1 Caleb Williams is shrewd. The Bears seem to have two primary targets, and Jeanty being one of them makes a ton of sense.
There’s not long before we find out the exact fate of Ashton Jeanty. In all likelihood, it’s probably still the Raiders. But Todd McShay’s intel does force you to throw caution to the wind. This is far from set in stone.
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