After UFC 315 entertained the fighting community with the slugfest that was Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena’s welterweight title fight, the expectations for the next UFC events have risen. And one matchup that has garnered the fighting community’s attention is the one between Julian Erosa and Mequizael Costa, scheduled to go down at UFC Vegas 106, on 17 May 2025. And as the date inches closer, the hype around the fight climbs higher. In turn, fight fans begin to predict the outcome of the bouts.
So, who has a higher chance of winning? Will it be Erosa, or will it be Costa? Of course, a win for either fighter will ensure a 4-fight win streak. And for that, the duo will do their best. But for now, let’s take a look at the stats and break down the fight to make our prediction, shall we?
UFC Vegas 106: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa stats
‘Juicy J’ stands 6’1” tall with a reach of 74 inches. Erosa is indeed a well-balanced fighter with a southpaw stance. He has a professional MMA record of 31-11-0, and 26 of his wins have come via finishes – 12 wins by KO/TKO and 14 wins by submissions. Erosa does like to strike and lands 6.40 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 49%. In the ground game, he has a takedown defense of 63%. And he lands 1.63 takedowns every 15 minutes with an accuracy of 48%. But his submission average is only 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
On the other hand, ‘Melk Cauthy’ measures 5’10” in height and has a reach of 71 inches. Surprise, surprise! He is also a southpaw. But unlike Erosa, Costa has fought a lesser number of fights. He fought a total of 30 bouts and won 23 of them – 7 via knockouts and 8 via submissions.
And as far as his stats are concerned, Costa is also a balanced fighter. He tends to land 3.86 significant strikes every minute with an accuracy of 49%. His takedown average is 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 34%. On top of that, he defends around 54% of his opponents’ takedown attempts. Clearly, Costa is losing the striking stats game against Erosa. But if we consider submission average, the numbers for ‘Melk Cauthy’ read 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which is pretty decent as compared to Erosa’s numbers.
Now, it’s time for what we’d been waiting for. Let’s try and break down the fight between Erosa and Costa, and see who has the better probability of winning at UFC Vegas 106.
Erosa vs. Costa breakdown and prediction
Erosa clearly holds an advantage when it comes to striking. We can even consider him in the list of UFC’s elite strikers. His ability to pick his shots and not just throw around his limbs recklessly makes him a dangerous opponent to fight against. Costa is significantly outpaced when it comes to striking. Moreover, he hasn’t inflicted enough damage in his previous bouts with just his striking ability. While ‘Juicy J’s strikes remain more concentrated at his opponent’s head, Costa focuses more on the body.
In the ground game, Erosa has displayed control and positional awareness, even though his submission attempts are way lower than Costa’s. He often shifted the momentum of the fights with his tactical gameplay. After all, the last three bouts got him first-round victories. And it was all because of his tactics. However, Costa has an ineffective setup and lacks controlling ability.
All in all, Erosa is a truly versatile mixed martial artist. He’s smart in his striking as well as grappling, and holds a good battle IQ. Meanwhile, ‘Melk Cauthy’ is a tough fighter with raw power and good cardiovascular prowess. But he lacks the control and precision needed to tackle seasoned veterans of the sport. So, if we take a look at the probability, the needle shifts towards Erosa for the win via decision or late finish. And if it’s Costa, he might win by volume or a TKO by liver shot.
Who do you think will win the bout between Erosa and Costa? Will the bout end with a finishing move? Let us know about your predictions in the comments down below.
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