The Arkansas Razorbacks, led by coach John Calipari, are in an unfamiliar and precarious situation as March Madness 2025 draws near. The renowned coach, who is well-known for regularly participating in championships, is in danger of missing the Big Dance completely. This potential embarrassment comes as ESPN’s renowned bracketologist Joe Lunardi delivers a stark prediction in his latest Men’s Bracketology report for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
In his latest 2025 Men’s Bracketology update, Lunardi has the Razorbacks as the first team “out” of the tournament field. John Calipari has long been a presence in the tournament, and his record of getting teams deep into March Madness is nearly unmatched. So what’s causing the Razorbacks to be in such bad shape? Although Lunardi doesn’t go into great depth, it’s obvious that a number of important issues are playing a part in Arkansas’s difficult future.
So, what’s going wrong? To begin with, the Razorbacks’ record raises serious concerns. They are in 14th place in their conference with a record of 14-9 overall and 3-7 in SEC play. The expectations that were put on John Calipari’s team at the beginning of the season were very different from that.
Top overall seed: Auburn
First team out: Arkansas
Last team in: BYU
Updated Men’s Bracketology for the 2025 NCAA tournament https://t.co/hl3ZDUvvnN
— ESPN (@espn) February 11, 2025
Arkansas has struggled to produce consistent offense, even with a good roster. While the Razorbacks have a decent average of 77 points per game, their shooting percentages present another view. Their three-point percentage is barely 33.9%; their field goal percentage is 46.5%. These numbers suggest that Arkansas is experiencing problems implementing their offensive plan. Still, the issues don’t stop here.
Given their average of 5.7 blocks per game, the team’s defense has also been a concern. With the Razorbacks averaging 7.8 steals per game, Arkansas has been exposed against tougher opponents because to their inconsistent offense and struggling defense; their overall performance reflects this.
Will John Calipari help Arkansas make a deep run into the tournament?
The current situation does not seem to be in John Calipari’s team’s favor as the regular season draws to a close. At best, the Razorbacks’ chances of going far in March seem to be modest. And they will need to work hard just to qualify for the tournament.
Jan 14, 2025; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari in a huddle on a tie out against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
Although they have had a few solid wins—like road victory over Kentucky and Texas in early February—these successes have not been sufficient to cover the obvious flaws in their game.
To be in contention for a tournament seat, Arkansas will need a strong season’s finish. And their remaining calendar offers a few chances for quality wins against top SEC schools. If they can put together a winning streak, they might actually be able to slip into the tournament as a lower seed. But given their unpredictable play, a deep run is quite unlikely even if they do get in.
One cannot deny that Arkansas’s road to March Madness has been anything but error-free. Renowned for pulling teams through the competition, John Calipari faces an enormous challenge. Whether he can turn things around and get the Razorbacks back on track is yet unknown. But one thing is certain: missing the tournament will be embarrassing for the team as well as for its legendary coach.
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