There’s redemption, and then there’s what Oklahoma’s cooking in 2025. After faceplanting through a brutal 6-7 season, the Sooners grabbed the country’s total touchdown leader in John Mateer. The Texas Elm QB dropped 44 touchdowns last season and now walks into Norman with Heisman odds (+1900) and SEC expectations stacked to the roof. Not everyone is putting their chips on Mateer and Brent Venables‘ stock. Now, everyone’s watching to see if this reboot saves his career or sends him packing.
The Sooners’ 2024 season was embarrassing for their program’s standards. Brent Venables’ Sooners ranked 126th (303.2 yards) in total offense and 121st in passing. The Sooners averaged 5.8 yards per attempt—basically screaming “checkdown city” on every drive. Jackson Arnold finished with just 12 touchdowns across 10 games, and even the defense—which only gave up 21 points per game—couldn’t bail them out. Venables saw the writing on the wall and went full gambler mode.
The former Clemson defensive play-caller hit the transfer portal and came back with gold from Wazzu. Cam Ward’s successor at Washington State. In 2024, John Mateer threw for 3,139 yards and 29 passing touchdowns with surgical precision. He’s not just mobile—he’s a dual-threat assassin. Fans called the swap from Arnold to Mateer “diabolical,” but let’s be honest—there was no real competition. Mateer’s tape talks louder than any depth chart.
But Venables didn’t stop at QB. He brought in Mateer’s old play-caller, Ben Arbuckle, to run the show. It’s a full system reboot. The Sooners’ offense now has real weapons: Deion Burks for speed, JaVonnie Gibson and Jayden Gibson for length and hops, and tight end Will Huggins as the chain-mover. Running back Jaydn Ott—who led the Pac-12 in rushing in 2023—is paired with Jovantae Barnes, who logged 577 yards last season. And let’s not forget the offensive line. Four out of five starters return, plus Derek Simmons and five-star Michael Fasusi holding the edge. This isn’t last year’s unit.
And yet, the biggest hurdle isn’t talent. It’s the schedule. Oddsmakers got Oklahoma’s win total at 6.3—and that’s not slander, it’s reality. They host Michigan, Auburn, LSU, and Missouri. On the road? South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama. And then there’s the annual Texas beatdown in Dallas. After that game, it’s a death march: South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. No breathers. Just bodies.
On June 16th, Mateer’s Heisman buzz hit a speed bump after CBS’s Tom Fornelli clowned the Heisman hype on the Cover 3 podcast. “John Mateer is not going to win the Heisman Trophy. I’m sorry. If you take 1900 on John Mateer, just send me the hundred bucks,” he joked during their Heisman odds ranking segment. The skepticism is fair. That strength of schedule ranks 77.1—one of the hardest in the country.
But that doesn’t erase the upside. If Mateer can drop dimes like he did at Wazzu, he’ll at least keep Oklahoma competitive in the meat grinder. Hot Take: If John Mateer had transferred to Miami like Cam Ward did, he’d have better odds and a real shot at winning the Heisman. Instead, he’s gearing up to play in the toughest conference in America.
The X-factor? The defense. Anchored by Troy Everett, David Stone, and Heath Ozaeta, OU’s D-line is built to handle SEC pressure. And if the offense even halfway clicks, Oklahoma won’t just beat expectations—they’ll blow them out of the water. ESPN analysts like Greg McElroy and Paul Finebaum already see Mateer as a massive upgrade at QB. The only thing stopping him from going full Kyler or Jalen? That schedule.
Rece Davis hints Brent Venables could be in hot water by 2025
Brent Venables has done the one thing you have to do in college football when your seat gets hot: he changed everything. But that’s also why the pressure is now nuclear-level. ESPN’s Rece Davis laid it all out on the College GameDay Podcast. “To me, it’s Oklahoma..Because of the change in offensive coordinator, bringing in Ben Arbuckle, but more importantly, bringing in John Mateer to play quarterback. They had quarterback issues last year. They had offensive issues. It’s not just because of that. It’s because it’s highly likely that Brent Venables’ job security depends on it.”
Davis wasn’t sugarcoating. He acknowledged Oklahoma had an elite defense but “abysmal” offense last year. Even with the late-season Alabama win softening the blow, the narrative didn’t fully flip. It’s playoffs or at least solid contention—or else. “I’m not saying they have to win the SEC or go to the Playoff… but another finish at the bottom of the SEC standings—I would hate to see that. Because I’ve wanted Venables to get a head coaching shot for so long. But it’s going to get turbulent there if this doesn’t work.”
That turbulence? It’s already circling. Oklahoma’s projected win total? Just 6.3. And even though they’ve built a stronger roster around Mateer, if the W’s don’t come quick, the whispers will turn into roars. This isn’t the Big 12 anymore. It’s the deep end, and Venables better know how to swim.
However, many insiders agree that this team, if healthy and cohesive, could shock a few juggernauts. But that “if” is the size of Oklahoma’s trophy case. Venables’ margin for error? Microscopic. Still, it’s a compelling setup. Oklahoma’s season kicks off August 30 against Illinois State. That’s the appetizer. The full-course chaos starts the week after when Michigan pulls up to Norman.
Rece wrapped it with a fair but sobering outlook: “I actually think they are poised to take a jump… but I do think they’re fascinating because of the ramifications. There are big stakes involved.” If Mateer doesn’t ball out or Arbuckle’s system doesn’t hit, Venables could be out before Halloween.
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