Miami’s history under Mario Cristobal over the past three seasons is a story of steady progress and agonizing finishes. In 2022, his debut season, the Hurricanes went 5-7 overall and 3-5 in the ACC, missing a bowl game entirely. Year two brought a 7-6 overall mark, with another 3-5 ACC run, and a loss in the Pinstripe Bowl to Rutgers, 31-24. Then came 2024, which offered the breakthrough many expected: Miami went 10-3, posting its first double-digit win season since 2017 and finishing 6-2 in conference. Still, they failed to reach the ACC title game and blew a late lead in a heartbreaking 42-41 loss to Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts bowl.
Those numbers are encouraging, but the pattern is troubling. Miami has now lost multiple games in the final quarter of close contests in each season under Cristobal. In 2023, a notorious clock management blunder against Georgia Tech cost them a game they should have won. But, a year later, they coughed up a big lead in the bowl game. There’s clear improvement, but what’s holding them back is closing games when they matter the most.
Now, the 2025 season is filled with expectations. On the July 11 episode of the Cover 3 podcast, Inside the U’s David Lake didn’t soften anything. He said the measure of success for Miami in 2025 is simple: reach Charlotte for the ACC Championship. And the baseline? At least a 7-1 ACC record. “Overall 9-3, 10-2, I don’t know, but to me the more important number is you have to go at least 7-1 in the ACC to get to Charlotte.” That’s not just talk; it frames the season as make-or-break for Cristobal.
David’s right when you look at the ACC landscape, too. Clemson and Miami sit a tier above the rest, especially with roster depth. So, although questions remain about non-conference tests like Notre Dame or Florida, the real job is dominating ACC opponents: smacking FAU, taking care of Louisville and SMU, and getting at least two wins out of NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pitt. If Miami can win two of those three, along with the FSU, Louisville, and SMU matchups, the path to Charlotte is clear. This roster is one of the best depth-wise, so they’ll have to prove it.
But what does this year’s team actually look like? Well, the Hurricanes are projected to have 55% returning production. Compare that to the ACC average of 59.1%, and things aren’t looking good. Of course, Cam Ward is a major loss, but Georgia transfer Carson Beck may fill that void. Similarly, there is a big void at the wide receiver position. Can LSU transfer CJ Daniels make the difference?
Mario Cristobal will be without Tyler Baron and Simeon Barrow on the D-line. The linebacker room was a major issue last year, and it’ll help that Miami will have some veterans there. The NFL Draft took its toll on the roster, and that’s why they added 40 new players in the portal.
Can Mario Cristobal break the 19-year-old curse?
Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal might not pay attention to superstitions going around, but the pundits are here to remind him. While this season is Cristobal’s fourth with the Hurricanes, there have been several coaches before him who haven’t survived a fourth season. On Locked on Canes, Alex Donno and Bruce Warner talk about Mario Cristobal and the curse.
“You look at Miami coaches, head football coaches for the past, you know, 20 or so years, since Larry Coker (had a successful Miami career till he left in 2006),” Donno said. “Randy Shannon, in his fourth year as head coach at Miami, went 7 and 5. He was fired before the end of the season. Al Golden went 6 and 7, remember he got blown out by Clemson 59 to nothing; he didn’t make it to the end of that season,” he added.
But Warner thinks the exact opposite. For him, Cristobal shouldn’t be worried much about the kind of transfers he made before this season. Bringing in Carson Beck was a smart move. “I think this time around, I think the Hurricanes have the talent and the alignment when it comes to the athletic department, on down to the coaching staff, and they’re investing in football. I think Mario Cristobal is going to break that year four curse.”
Well, the curse-related topic is quite debatable, but the head coach does have to prove to everyone and the fanbase that this season will be an unforgettable one.
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