On a warm March morning in West Palm Beach, Framber Valdez zipped up his Astros hoodie and stepped in front of the cameras. It wasn’t the first time he’d been asked about his future, but this time, his response carried more weight. A free agent after the 2025 season, the left-hander made no effort to sugarcoat the situation. “Yes, I think so,” he said when asked if he expects to hit the open market. A few short words, but ones that spoke volumes.
For a franchise that built its dynasty on pitching depth, the silence surrounding Valdez’s contract status is deafening. Over the last five seasons, the Dominican southpaw has been a workhorse, posting a 3.12 ERA while leading MLB in ground-ball rate. He anchored Houston’s rotation through deep playoff runs, delivered clutch performances in the 2022 World Series, and even started an All-Star Game. Yet, as Opening Day nears, the Astros have made no attempt to discuss an extension. No lowball offer. No feeler negotiations. Nothing.
It’s not something he can control, Valdez admitted. “I just prepare myself to pitch, and whatever happens, happens.” That sounds like a player who has already come to terms with leaving. The Astros, meanwhile, appear comfortable letting him walk, a strategy that’s becoming all too familiar. Just ask Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, and George Springer. Houston has long been hesitant to hand out mega-deals, particularly to pitchers. Cristian Javier’s $64 million contract and Lance McCullers Jr.’s $85 million extension both look questionable now, given their injury struggles. That history, combined with Valdez’s age—he turns 32 in November—likely explains the team’s reluctance.
No Extension Talks Between Framber Valdez, Astros https://t.co/yQbxbwRhRU pic.twitter.com/ZDcOn7xneb
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) March 22, 2025
But here’s the thing: the Astros need him. The rotation isn’t as deep as it once was, and without Valdez, it could get ugly fast. The front office already took a calculated risk by trading Kyle Tucker to Chicago, banking on young outfield depth to fill the void. Are they really prepared to watch another All-Star talent walk for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick?
Maybe the Astros have a plan. Maybe they’re betting that Valdez won’t find the mega-deal he’s looking for and that he’ll return on a short-term contract, just like Justin Verlander did. But that’s a dangerous game to play with a pitcher of his caliber.
For now, Valdez is focused on 2025. But unless Houston changes course soon, this season could be his last in an Astros uniform.
Astros rotation in transition: Who fills the void?
If the Astros decide not to re-sign Framber Valdez next offseason, it wouldn’t just mean losing a pitcher—it would also mean losing a reliable player. Valdez has proven himself as one of the steady arms in baseball over the last five years, ranking first among qualified pitchers in ground ball rate and pitching close to 800 innings. Replacing that level of reliability isn’t easy, especially for a Houston team that has already seen its rotation depth tested by injuries. With Cristian Javier recovering from Tommy John surgery and uncertainty surrounding younger arms, the Astros will have to get creative.
So, who steps up? Hunter Brown and J.P. France have shown flashes of potential, but neither has proven they can anchor a rotation. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti has promise, but expecting him to immediately replace Valdez is a stretch. The Astros could turn to the trade market, but they’ve already moved key prospects in recent deals, limiting their ability to swing a blockbuster. Free agency might offer solutions, but Houston has been reluctant to hand out massive long-term pitching contracts. Could they take a chance on a high-upside arm like Shane Bieber or Tyler Glasnow?
What do you think? Will Houston regret letting another key piece walk, or do they have a hidden strategy to keep their championship window open?
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