ATP Geneva: Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

Finally, Novak Djokovic gets back to winning ways on clay! Perhaps, this could be a bit sigh of relief for all the Nole fans ahead of Roland Garros. At the 2025 French Open, the Serb will be seeking to clinch his 25th Grand Slam title, but before that, can he sneak his 100th singles title this week in Geneva? Well, after securing victory in his first match at the Geneva Open, Djokovic said, “My first win this season on clay. It is great to break the ice in a way. It is a very demanding surface. We all know how tricky it is to play on clay, compared to the other surfaces, you always have to expect an extra ball, an extra shot.” He’s glad to be able to play his best tennis when it was needed the most and he hopes to continue this winning moment in his next match as well, against Matteo Arnaldi (ITA). Can Djokovic take his revenge over the Italian this time?

Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi: Preview

Novak Djokovic started this season by reaching the QF in Brisbane, and then he also made it to the semis at the AO. But in Melbourne, his SF clash against Alexander Zverev came to an abrupt ending due to an injury. Following that withdrawal, Djokovic struggled to deliver in Doha and Indian Wells, but he came back strongly in Miami, reaching the finals. After that, yet again, his performance graph dropped significantly with two early exits from Monte Carlo and Madrid. But recently, after beating Hungary’s Marton Fucsovics (2018 champion) in the R16 of the Geneva Open by 6-2,6-3, he ended that three-match losing streak.

Talking about his recent struggles in the pre-tournament press conference, Djokovic said, “This is a new chapter in my career that I’m trying to navigate. I’m not really used to these circumstances, with defeats coming one after the other in the first few rounds – even though I knew it would happen at some point.” But having said that, the 38-year-old also mentioned that his hunger to win big titles and beat the best players in the world is still the same.

Tennis – French Open – Roland Garros, Paris, France – May 30, 2024 Serbia’s Novak Djokovic reacts during his second round match against Spain’s Roberto Carballes Baena REUTERS/Lisi Niesner

He will be facing Matteo Arnaldi in this epic QF clash, and guess what? Arnaldi has idolized Djokovic while growing up. After their previous meeting, the 24-year-old Italian said, “To play him at a stage like this was already a victory for me.” Arnaldi has made some long runs in his previous tournaments this year, including an SF run at the Delray Beach Open, and he even reached the QF in Madrid this year, but he’s yet to win a title this season. He has already secured two victories in this tournament, and he’ll be entering this match following his 6-3,7-6(3) triumph over Fabian Marozsan in the R16.

Djokovic vs Arnaldi: Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic has met Matteo Arnaldi only once in his career so far, and guess what? Djokovic trails Arnaldi by 0-1 in the H2H record! This will be their second meeting in the 2025 season. In the previous encounter, the Serb looked completely out of sorts. Can he turn things around in his favor this time?

2025 ATP Masters 1000 Madrid R64: Arnaldi 6-3,6-4.

Prediction: Djokovic to win this match in a hard-fought three-setter

When the going gets tough, the tough gets going. Novak Djokovic is one of the toughest players, mentally, and surely he’ll figure out ways to turn his fortunes pretty soon. I’m expecting him to deliver a strong performance in not only this match, but in this tournament as a whole, and take forward that winning momentum to Paris. We must not forget he’s a three-time French Open (2016,2021,2023) champion. Other than that, he has made SFs or better at 13 editions of the Roland Garros.

Although he has now dropped to number 6 in the rankings and has a win-loss record of just 12-7 this season, I believe he’ll be keen to take his revenge against the Italian. On the other side, Matteo Arnaldi (39) has a win-loss record of 13-11 this season.

Talking about their playing styles, Arnaldi is known for playing a modern, aggressive baseline style, which is primarily focused on his powerful forehand. He also utilizes his excellent backhand for slicing and drop shots. Arnaldi is also pretty much comfortable volleying at the net. 

Whereas Novak Djokovic is known for his highly defensive, yet aggressive, all-court playing style. He excels in long rallies, increasing his pace and accuracy as the point progresses, often forcing errors from his opponents. His ability to seamlessly transition from counterpunch to aggressor, his uncanny flexibility, and his extraordinary reach render him a truly unique and daunting opponent. Other than that, a key element of his game is his exceptional return of serve, allowing him to often neutralize or even counter-attack powerful serves. So, considering all these factors, I expect him to get the better of the Italian this time.

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