At Florida, expectations don’t just knock—they kick the door in. And right now, Billy Napier’s door might be hanging on by a hinge. Entering his fourth season as head coach of the Gators, Napier isn’t just coaching to win—he’s coaching to keep his job. And all his chips are in on one name: DJ Lagway.
The Gators are betting big on their young quarterback, and frankly, Napier has no other choice. Despite a rocky 2024 season, he’s back at the helm. But don’t mistake that for job security. Napier’s contract, which runs through January 2029, comes with a massive $27 million buyout—the second-largest in college football history. So even if the program wants to cut ties, it’ll be an expensive divorce.
But the problem? That bet on Lagway might be hitting a snag.
Last year, Lagway was seen as the spark that could reignite Florida football. His stat line—1,915 passing yards and 12 touchdowns—was solid, especially given the Gators’ offensive line struggles. He gave fans a glimpse of what could be. But then, disaster struck. Against Georgia in November, Lagway pulled his hamstring. While he worked to recover, word slipped that it might not just be the hamstring. Napier casually hinted at a shoulder issue. And now? Lagway reportedly hasn’t been throwing. That’s not just concerning—it’s alarming.
On the March 31st episode of That SEC Football Podcast, hosts SEC Mike and Cousin Shane broke down Florida’s 2025 season outlook. The oddsmakers have set the over/under for the Florida Gators’ win total at 6.5 games. With a few cupcake games—LIU, and South Florida—those should be easy wins. But the rest of the schedule? Brutal. They’ll face LSU, Georgia, Miami, Texas A&M… it’s a gauntlet.
Still, Shane tried to spin some optimism into Napier’s rebuild, saying, “Billy has been slow cooking. You ever have one of them slow cookers? You put it on six and low and just let it roll? That’s what we’ve been doing down in Florida. We’ve just been marinating for this particular season.” But even that slow-cooker patience has its limits.
Shane didn’t hold back: “The Florida Gators would have fired something. There would have been bo-b threats, Mike, if six and a half was the over/under is.” While a bit dramatic, it captures the growing frustration. Then he flat-out said it: “Fact of the matter is, they gonna fire him because I’m taking the under.”
For fans, the excuses are wearing thin. The program is built on decades of dominance, not three straight losing seasons—the first time that’s happened since 1945. And while a rebuild takes time, Florida doesn’t want to wait anymore.
Shane even doubled down, adding: “I like the under here, and I like it early…. I don’t want to take away from what they did at the tail end of last season. It’s like grabbing a second wind—only to realize you still have 10 miles left to run.” In other words, the finish line is nowhere in sight, and this team may already be gassed.
And now comes the Lagway problem. Napier tried to protect his QB by beefing up the offensive line with five new additions, essentially building a fortress. But if Lagway isn’t healthy enough to play, what does it matter? Shane didn’t mince words: “And I just don’t think they’ve got enough gas in the tank here, brother. I feel like DJ being kind of banged up—you talked about these bets.” That’s the scary part. Lagway isn’t just another player—he’s the player. He’s Napier’s best (and maybe only) hope to turn the ship around.
And it gets worse. Shane continued, “Now, if my quarterback is seeking other opinions right now, that is an alarm for me, and I do not want to invest any money in a team that has a six and a half.” Translation? Where there’s smoke, there might be fire. And right now, Florida’s future looks hazy at best.
Billy Napier’s gamble at Florida
It’s not just SEC insiders raising eyebrows. ESPN’s Paul Finebaum has been calling it as he sees it, and he isn’t buying the idea that Napier is safe. On On3’s Andy & Ari podcast, he said, “We in the media fall into a lot of trapdoors. The trap door that we’ve fallen into now is that Billy Napier is safe, there are no issues, there are no problems, and DJ Lagway is the next Tebow.” That Tebow comparison? Yeah, it’s not helping anyone. And Finebaum’s message is clear: just because Napier wasn’t fired last season doesn’t mean he’s out of the woods.
Backing that up, The Athletic recently ranked Napier as the second-most vulnerable coach in the SEC—right behind Arkansas’ Sam Pittman. Not exactly an elite company. And don’t forget, three of Florida’s first four games this season are away from The Swamp. The one home game? Against a College Football Playoff contender. So there’s no time to ease into this thing. If the Gators stumble out of the gate, the calls for Napier’s job will come loud and fast.
All of this brings us back to that haunting $27 million buyout. It loomed last season, and it’s still very much hanging in the background. For Florida, this isn’t just about pride—it’s about money. And right now, it looks like they’re paying a premium for mediocrity. So where does it all go from here?
If DJ Lagway is healthy, confident, and ready to ball out, maybe—maybe—Napier can steady the ship. Maybe that slow-cooked rebuild finally hits its stride. But if Lagway’s injuries linger or worsen, the foundation Napier built starts to crumble. And if that happens? That $27 million check might start looking like the cost of change Florida can no longer afford to ignore.
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