Oklahoma Sooners football under Brent Venables has been anything but dull recently. Following a bumpy first season in the SEC, with the Sooners sputtering to a 6-7 mark and managing only two league victories, Venables and his assistants have been hard at work revamping almost all facets of the program. The biggest news? Venables is reclaiming defensive play-calling responsibilities for 2025, and he’s not afraid to say why: “I’m good at it, and I have confidence in my abilities,” he said this spring. Defense wasn’t the only unit receiving a makeover, however. The offense, which was a paltry 98th in scoring last season, has a new look as well.
Ben Arbuckle replaces the offensive coordinator, and the Sooners signed Washington State quarterback transfer John Mateer to bring some life into the passing game. They also added California Golden Bears’ Jaydn Ott to complement the running back unit. Returning to the microphone after a stint as a former OC, Kevin Wilson will break down the things Oklahoma needs to improve on the offensive line, an area that was soft in 2024. Fans and pundits are all eyes, wondering if these dramatic overhauls will put Oklahoma into its winning groove again. And now, that national championship chatter. Let’s get real: entering the national title discussion is a high hurdle, to say the least, with the SEC gauntlet waiting in the wings. But with Brent Venables coordinating the defense and a revamped offense, the Sooners have the leadership and talent to make some noise.
In the latest installment of That SEC Football Podcast, the host says, Can the Sooners really compete into November for the championship? I think they could be there, yeah that that’d be one heck of an impressive turnaround. It’s not necessarily talent (though they’ve got a lot, particularly with portal additions), but coaching too. Brent Venables is again in the defensive play-calling driver’s seat, but here’s the thing: entering the national championship scene is “unexpected territory” for Oklahoma presently. The SEC is a monster, and the Sooners are still the newbies on the block. The offense must come together quickly under Arbuckle, and the defense must make a significant jump. The model doesn’t have them undefeated like Texas. But it does have them in the thick of the playoff hunt.
The 2025 Oklahoma football schedule is as hard as it comes, and this is why: they’re not wading in the SEC waters-they’re diving right into the deep end. “They get a lot of big games at home, Michigan, Auburn, Miss, uh, they you know Missouri, and LSU, they do have to go to Tennessee and they do have to go to South Carolina.” The Sooners play host to Michigan in Week 2, and that’s a first-class, playoff-quality team coming out of the box. No coasting on cupcakes, though.
But the real gauntlet is the SEC schedule. Oklahoma has to play Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU in the state, which doesn’t sound so bad until you remember that those are all teams capable of beating anyone on any given Saturday. And then there are the road games: at South Carolina, at Tennessee, and, oh boy, at Alabama. Entering the Grove is a nightmare for anyone, much less a team that is still learning the ropes in the SEC.
The analysts weren’t simply spewing out hot takes. They analyzed the way that Oklahoma’s schedule is ugly, but if they can get a couple of large wins and steer clear of the trap games, they could positively find themselves in the playoff hunt. And once there, anything can happen, particularly with a coach like Venables and a breakout QB. Tying that optimism to the stats, Jake Wimberly’s analytics model at CFB Hourglass says something.
What does 9-3 signify for Oklahoma’s playoff hopes?
You got Oklahoma 9 and 3, and again you said John Mateer, number one quarterback, so uh, what is the model saying about the Sooners’ year two in the SEC? Jake’s model has the Sooners at 9-3 for their second year in the SEC, a vast improvement over last season’s woes. But what set tongues wagging was how the model grades Oklahoma’s new quarterback, John Mateer. “He has taken ownership of this thing and said, ‘Hey, I’m going to be the one you know I’ve had to he how you paraphrase it, put my team on my back before. I’m doing it here.”
In Jake’s opinion, Mateer is the highest-rated QB of the entire SEC, coming from last season’s production. “John Mateer can do the same sort of thing, he’s a running guy; he can get you a first down on the ground, he can bust a long run, he can make a big play down the field in the passing game.”
The 9-3 projection isn’t a diss, it’s a mark of respect, given the way that the SEC is loaded this year. The likes of Texas, Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M are all due to be in that 10-2 or 9-3 level as well, so Oklahoma is among the big boys. And here’s the best part: analysts believe that in this new SEC universe, 9-3 could downright get you into the playoffs, and from there, anything is possible.
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