Dark Clouds Over Mario Cristobal in Harsh Carson Beck Verdict as Miami’s CFP Fate Announced

The Miami Hurricanes head coach returned from spring break looking refreshed, optimistic, and laser-focused on what he calls “stacking good days.” But not everyone sees the sunshine over Coral Gables. Spring ball is rolling, but so are the whispers—the kind that don’t just question Miami’s playoff hopes, but whether Mario Cristobal himself is the right guy to get them there. The skepticism isn’t just about the team’s overall progress; it’s about the man under center. Carson Beck, the former Georgia main man, was supposed to be the perfect plug-and-play addition. Instead, his arrival has come with more baggage than a peak-season flight to Miami International.

Between an offseason filled with injury concerns and some unexpected teen-drama news with an apparent split with Canes basketball star Hanna Cavinder, not everyone is sold on the idea that he’s the guy to lead the Hurricanes into the promised land. FSU insider Brian Smith, On the “Locked On Seminoles” podcast, painted a picture that’s far less rosy than Cristobal’s. “Biggest concern I have with Miami moving forward is really about this season,” Smith said, pointing directly at the Carson Beck experiment. “They brought in… Carson Beck for this next year. That’s either gonna be boom, or that’s gonna be bust.” That’s a blunt way to put it, but it’s hard to argue with the assessment.

Beck was once a Heisman hopeful in Athens, but his season ended in an unceremonious fashion—an awkward, brutal hit in the College Football Playoff that left him needing surgery. Now, the questions aren’t just about his arm talent but also about his ability to rebound mentally and physically. “Is he going to be ready? Mentally and physically to take on the first game?” Smith asked. And he didn’t need to remind anyone that that first game is against Notre Dame, a team that doesn’t exactly ease quarterbacks into new systems. “That’s a pretty serious defense,” Smith said. “Is he gonna be ready for that?”

The doubts don’t stop there. Even if Carson Beck is healthy, there’s still the issue of chemistry. Miami hit a home run last year by landing Cam Ward, a “generational” passer who could sling it with the best of them. But as Smith pointed out, “That guy was awesome, but he couldn’t play enough on the other side of the ba-l for them… I mean, he’s just a quarterback. You can only score so much.” Translation? The Hurricanes had an explosive offense, but their defense didn’t hold up its end of the bargain.

And if that remains the case, Beck won’t be able to drag this team to the finish line on his own. “I don’t think Carson Beck is even in the stratosphere of Cam Ward,” Smith added bluntly. That’s a stinging word, especially when Miami fans have been sold on the idea that Beck’s arm talent would elevate this team to playoff contention (that too for $4 million).

If Miami’s defense doesn’t take a major leap, Smith doesn’t see this team making a serious run. “I’m not confident,” he admitted. “They got problems in the secondary until otherwise proven, and they also have problems—no doubt about it—at linebacker, because they couldn’t fit a run gap last year in critical moments to save their life.” That’s not a small issue; it’s a glaring structural flaw.

If the U’s defense is still struggling with the basics, how can anyone trust this team to hang with the likes of Florida State, Clemson, or even an improved Louisville squad? The Hurricanes have a new defensive coordinator, but Smith wasn’t ready to declare that a fix-all. “If you miss there, Miami’s in a funky situation,” he said. “Because Mario loves the school, great recruiter, seems like a good guy, all those things… but after year four, if they go 8-4 or 9-3 this year? That’s a problem.”

And that brings us to the inevitable verdict on Miami’s CFP fate. Smith laid it out clearly: “I think they should make the playoff. If Miami doesn’t make the playoff this upcoming season, something’s wrong.” That’s a strong statement, and it comes with an implicit ultimatum. If Mario Cristobal can’t guide this team to the expanded 12-team CFP, the perception will be that he’s simply not the guy to get Miami over the hump. But while Smith sees Miami as a playoff team, he doesn’t believe they have the firepower to truly compete at the highest level.

“I don’t think they’ll make the Final Four,” he said flatly. “Because, again, I don’t trust Carson Beck.” That’s the crux of it—Miami might be talented enough to break into the playoffs, but not good enough to threaten the true contenders. If Beck struggles, and if the defense doesn’t tighten up, then it’s a wrap for all the South Beach vibes.

Mario Cristobal is confident in Miami’s progress despite Carson Beck’s limited action

With all the noise surrounding Carson Beck’s transfer to Miami, coach Cristobal remains laser-focused on one thing: keeping the Hurricanes moving forward. While others question Beck’s decision, Cristobal is locked in on making sure the team builds on last season’s momentum rather than resetting.

“The goal for us was to kick off where we left off and not have to start all over again,” Cristobal said. “So, with our players, we made it a point for them to stay in good shape throughout spring break. Obviously, make good choices and decisions so we could come back and continue where we left off.”

For Cristobal, spring football is all about progress—but he knows that doesn’t happen by accident. “Progress has to be forced. It has to be pushed. It has to be worked. It just doesn’t happen because you show up.” Beck’s still on the mend after that surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament. And he’s just limited to practice right now, which has fans a bit twitchy. But even with that, Cristobal is seeing some good progress with the quarterbacks overall. “The opportunity comes in the form of reps. Sometimes it’s live reps, sometimes it’s walkthrough reps, sometimes it’s reps in the film room,” he explained. The Hurricanes have bet big on this year being different.

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