USC’s Trojans are more than just struggling; they’ve hit a wall that feels miles away from the dynasty Pete Carroll built. After Carroll’s departure to the NFL in 2009, USC’s dominance crumbled. Just five 10-win seasons, one Pac-12 title (2017), and no College Football Playoff appearances. That’s the post-Carroll legacy. For a program with 25 Rose Bowl wins, 8 Heisman Trophies, and 530 NFL draft picks—second only to Notre Dame’s 532—this is a fall from grace that stings.
Yet, blaming Lincoln Riley alone for this skid feels off. Sure, he’s got a 10-year, $110 million contract, but the roots of this decline run deeper. As Andy Staples pointed out on On3’s podcast, “USC and Florida are the same job. They’ve been, in the modern era of football, fairly mediocre when they haven’t had a Hall of Fame-level coach.” That’s the crux of it. USC isn’t just fighting to reclaim past glories; it’s battling a changing landscape, and Riley’s high salary only adds pressure to deliver results. And then, they’ve got the Oregon problem….
Lincoln Riley’s struggles aren’t just about internal challenges. Oregon has emerged as a massive thorn in USC’s side. Co-host Ari Wasserman pinpointed a key reason for USC’s increasing difficulty, stating, “The USC job has become increasingly harder because of the emergence of Oregon.” Wasserman immediately echoed this sentiment, adding, “and because they’re in the Big Ten now.” That’s a heavy reality check. Oregon’s recruiting game is on another level, and it’s cutting deep into USC’s backyard.
Take last year, for example. Oregon hauled in 28 commits, 10 of them from California—a state long considered USC’s private recruiting turf. Meanwhile, Riley’s Trojans pulled in 23 commits, only 7 from California. That’s a brutal shift. Oregon’s ability to pull elite West Coast talent isn’t just a minor inconvenience; it’s a direct hit to USC’s foundation.
And the numbers back this up. Oregon is grabbing top talent while USC scrambles to catch up. The Ducks have built a pipeline into California, and with Big Ten exposure, they’re becoming even more appealing to high-profile recruits. As Wasserman noted, “They used to be the kings and badasses of the West Coast. And one of the two coaches that you mentioned got them to where they wanted to go—did it before Oregon was even a thought.” But now? “Oregon recruits the hell out of California.”
For USC, this is quite a blow—losing local talent while watching a rival build a West Coast powerhouse. And Wasserman followed it up with a question: “Not only do they have a harder time recruiting in their own state, there is a question of whether or not the talent in that state is even as good as the other states….whether or not the California players that they used to subsidize their entire roster are good enough.”
In recent years, Oregon, fueled by Dan Lanning’s hungry staff and Phil Knight’s NIL resources, has increasingly poached top talent from Southern California—players like Deommodore Lenoir, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aydin Breland, and Jordon Davison, who were once considered near-automatic USC commits. This recruiting edge has propelled the Ducks to the top of the Big Ten rankings for the 2025 class, while USC is fighting to maintain their No. 1 position for 2026. Adding to this momentum for Oregon, Steve Wiltfong has logged an official prediction for them to land a commitment from 5-star QB Ryder Lyons, the top player in California. Meanwhile, the Trojans also face a challenging Big Ten schedule with an over/under win total of 7.5, significantly lower than the Ducks’ projected 10.5 wins.
“There’s a lot underneath the hood about USC that you have to acknowledge is difficult. And because you’re a fan of them, if you don’t want to do that, that’s fine—but it’s right in front of your face. Oregon, California talent, a harder schedule, a different time zone—everything is less advantageous than the 10 schools that we had on the list,” Wasserman added. But despite all that, Riley knows what went wrong and what he shouldn’t repeat.
Lincoln Riley’s recruiting shift
In his initial three offseasons at USC, Riley went portal-heavy instead of stocking up on local talent. Notably, sixteen of these transfers joined in the spring, a crucial period marked by limited available talent and increased competition. Despite these challenges, USC still managed to land key starters through this strategy, including Jordan Addison and linebacker Eric Gentry in his first April, as well as All-Big Ten lineman Emmanuel Pregnon in 2023 (transferred to Oregon). Defensive tackle Bear Alexander, who also arrived via transfer and showed significant potential, eventually departed USC for Oregon.
Transfer portal success is fleeting. The roster churn can disrupt team chemistry and make long-term stability nearly impossible. And Riley’s biggest recruiting misstep, he now admits, was delaying the establishment of a strong high school foundation. “If I had any regrets about our path up to this, I would have started that after the first year instead of after the second year,” he said in a candid Y-Option Podcast interview with Yogi Roth.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Riley has adjusted. He empowered his staff, particularly GM Chad Bowden, to hit the high school recruiting trail hard. The results are promising. USC’s 2025 class currently ranks 5th in the Big Ten with 24 commitments, and their 2026 class sits atop the national rankings with 27 commits and zero transfers. That’s a massive pivot, indicating a shift toward building a sustainable, talent-rich roster.
Riley has learned from his early missteps. He’s balancing transfer pickups with foundational high school recruits, laying the groundwork for a more stable program. It’s a smart move, given the Big Ten’s physical, grind-it-out style. If he can keep this momentum, USC’s $110 million investment might just pay off.
Lincoln Riley’s time at USC hasn’t been the instant triumph many expected, but he’s adapting. The Oregon threat is real, but so is the opportunity for a fresh start as USC prepares to join the Big Ten. If Riley can keep his recruiting machine running while stabilizing the roster, his tenure could still flip the script on a program desperate for a return to glory.
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