While this year’s March Madness continues without the thrill of major upsets, it sets us up for some mammoth showdowns towards the end of March, and it starts now. In the history of Kentucky basketball, they’ve played no opponent more than their border rivals Tennessee and this would be the 242nd instance where the teams face off. This game, however, will be a first. Surprisingly enough, the teams have never played each other in the NCAA Tournament and would be a historic page in this fabled rivalry.
While the No.2 seed Tennessee are back for their 3rd consecutive Sweet 16, Kentucky hasn’t been here since 2019. The memories weren’t too fond either as the Wildcats were sent packing by 14-seed Auburn in the Elite 8. As Kentucky might appear favorites to some having defeated the Vols twice this season, ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI), a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward, begs to differ.
Revenge Tastes Sweetest in March
Since losing to Kentucky at Rupp Arena in February, Tennessee has subsequently gone 9-2 with wins over then—No. 4 Texas A&M, then—No. 2 Alabama and then—No. 1 Auburn. With the Vols firing on all cylinders in March, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives them a 63% chance to proceed to the Elite 8 while the Wildcats head into the tie as underdogs with only 37% chance. This is sure to help the morale of Tennessee, who have performed dismally against Kentucky this season.
In its two regular season clashes with Tennessee, Kentucky shot 50% from the perimeter while the Vols struggled to keep pace by shooting 24.4% from deep in the first meeting at Thompson-Boling Arena and 16.7% in the second game at Rupp Arena. The second meeting was particularly horrid for the Vols. Kentucky pieced together a defensive masterclass while Tennessee gave their worst performance of the season. Kentucky’s 78 points were the most Tennessee has allowed this season.
The highlighted stats help understand that Tennessee remain the favorites because their performances against Kentucky have been uncharacteristic of the season they’re having. “We’ve had games where we (have made shots), and I’m hoping at the right time we’re going to knock them down, you know? Teams go through it,” Coach Barnes said after their Kentucky loss in February. “I do think we can shoot the ball. I do.”
It’s not that The Vols are not a good shooting team, but simply that they’re a volume shooting team. “You live by the 3 and you die by the 3” sums it up well. They take 44.4% of their shots from 3-point range, the highest clip in the SEC. The duo of Zakai Ziegler and Chaz Lanier is central to the system, with Zakai being adept at distributing the ball and Lanier knocking it down. It’s a risky system, but it has worked all season and it worked in their last round match-up against UCLA as well. Lanier scored 20 points, leading his team to victory and breaking the Tennessee single-season record for made 3-pointers set by Chris Lofton in 2007-08 in the process.
Will The Wildcats Bring Their Brooms?
Coach Mark Pope was delighted with his team’s efforts at the last meeting in Lexington. He applauded the resilience his team had displayed across the season, moving through the ebbs and flows and adapting no matter what. Although Lamont Butler had been a major driving force in Kentucky’s season, they managed to beat Tennessee even after Lamont had to leave mid-game due to a shoulder injury. Ansley Almonor and Otaga Oweh mutually led the team in points, scoring 13 points each and sealing the victory that made it 2-0 this season against The Vols.
Tennessee’s shooting woes mostly seem to occur when stars Zeigler and Lanier can’t get their shots to fall. What makes this matchup difficult is the defensive prowess of their opposing backcourt, Butler & Oweh. Although slowing down Zeigler is no easy task, but if anyone can, it’s Butler, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in college hoops.
The Wildcats also share the ball very well, which displays their collective experience, playing a selfless brand of basketball. Another highlight of their season and a factor to this game is Center Amari Williams, who has dished out 112 assists this season, most ever by any Kentucky player 6-foot-9 or taller. He’s also fierce on the glass, which would make for a tough battle against Felix Okpara.
While the odds appear to be against them, the satisfaction of a season sweep against the no.2 seed might just be the fuel the Wildcats need for a deep run. If there are no injuries, this Kentucky team doesn’t appear to be one that will down easy. With potential to be a classic March Madness thriller, do not commit the crime of not tuning into this one!
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