The ghost of the past has been a recurring theme in college football. Heading into a new regular season, the conference powerhouses revamped their rosters. The transfer portal served as the filler between a doomed season and a hope for a strong redemption. Just as Paul Finebaum deemed the Indiana Hoosiers and the SMU Mustangs as the biggest fraudulent teams last year, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has some other names in his head.
The SEC analyst had expected the least from Indiana and SMU last year. But he bet a dime on teams like Alabama and Ole Miss. The latter two didn’t make it to the postseason. The Hoosiers, on the other hand, had a season for the ages, finishing with an 11-1 record. SMU bagged the second-highest number of wins in its history. Paul sighed over his projection and said, “I’m sorry I did that.”
On May 22, Bill Connelly released his post-spring SP+ rankings for the 2025 season. The ESPN analyst bases his list on three factors: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. To no one’s surprise, the defending champions, Ohio State, made it to the top of the rankings, followed by Alabama and Penn State. The top 10 names contain the usual suspects in Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, and Oregon.
Connelly appeared on the May 29 episode of the 1080 The FAN podcast to discuss his rankings. One of the two hosts asked Bill about teams that may not do justice to their current place on his list. “Every year, we have one of these teams [that] start near the top of the list, and then they fade or sink like a stone. The numbers spit it out. They give you the top 10. Who’s the most fraudulent team in your SP+ top 10 right now?” Bill was asked.
Surprisingly, Connelly’s first ‘fraudulent’ team isn’t even in the current top 10. He talks about Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss, who had a tipsy-turvy 2024, barely missing the playoffs after having a 9-3 record (the same as Alabama and South Carolina). Their exclusion from the final 12-team list sent the head coach into an online tweetstorm against the committee. “I was a huge Ole Miss advocate last year. I thought if they had sneaked into the playoffs, they really could have done a lot of damage,” said the ESPN analyst.
What changed for them this year? To start with, they don’t have the services of their QB1, Jaxson Dart, who has moved to the pros. However, Connelly’s issue is with the business Lane Kiffin’s program did in the transfer portal. “I don’t like this transfer haul at all; like, there’s the reason they’re projected, I think, ninth [they’re actually projected 11th] is because they were second last year.”
Ole Miss was ranked 4th behind LSU, Texas Tech, and Miami in the transfer rankings for the 2025 season. The Rebels roped in some big names on offense in RB Kewan Lacy (Missouri) and WRs De’Zhaun Stribling, Caleb Odom (Alabama), and Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest). Even on the defensive side of things, LBs Jaden Yates (Marshall), Tahj Chambers (Missouri State), and Andrew Jones (Grambling State), along with edge Da’Shawn Womack (LSU), are significant additions.
However, as per Connelly, it’s not the additions; the guys they have lost are a bigger issue. “Maybe Austin Simmons is kind of ready to be a stud at quarterback, but I just look at the guys they lost. And the guys they brought in, and it feels like it’s a downgrade just about everywhere. So that one’s kind of tough for me. I guess they’re 11th, actually; never mind.”
The Rebels had eight players drafted in the 2025 NFL draft. The list includes their QB Jaxson Dart, DT Walter Nolen, WR Tre Harris, CB Trey Amos, DE Princely Umanmielen, DT JJ Pegues, LB Chris Paul Jr., and WR Jordan Watkins. When you lose such starting experience, there’s bound to be doubt about your output.
The second ‘fraudulent’ program as per Bill Connelly
While Ole Miss wasn’t originally in Bill Connelly’s top 10, the second program he names is a part of his list. It’s none other than Sherrone Moore’s Michigan, who is currently at the 10th position in SP+ rankings.
“Michigan at 10 feels pretty ambitious, too, although we know that all they need is kind of a semi-competent quarterback, and they could be in pretty good shape. But yeah, those two are pretty tough otherwise,” Bill shed light on his second hope-buster team.
The Wolverines have added their $12 million crown jewel in Bryce Underwood, the nation’s no. 1 QB in the 2025 class. However, fresh out of high school, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Underwood’s production in the 2025 season. We rarely see a freshman QB taking the college football world by storm. That happens more with wide receivers (Jeremiah Smith, a case in point).
Moreover, the whole saga of their sign-stealing scandal isn’t also helping the program have the desired level of stability as they head into the 2025 season. Sherrone Moore is set to be suspended from the sidelines for two games, and considering the NCAA’s still looking into the matter, there may be harsher sanctions.
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