The Jake Retzlaff era in Provo has quietly come to a close. On Friday, the senior ex-QB1 announced that he will withdraw from BYU and look to finish his college career elsewhere. Kalani Sitake’s BYU Cougars have written—and closed—another chapter, and now face a new identity shift entering 2025.While ESPN’s Bill Connelly suggests Retzlaff’s departure won’t drastically change BYU’s outlook, the bigger concern might not be the roster. Instead, it’s visibility. With the landscape of college football reshaping under conference realignment, NIL, and media schedules, Sitake’s program is quietly becoming one of the Big 12’s most overlooked. Even when they’re winning.
Before Retzlaff’s exit, Connelly had BYU slotted at No. 27 in his SP+ projections with a projected 8.4 wins. After the news dropped, they slipped five spots to No. 32, with win projections dipping slightly to around 7.9-8.1. And while that minor fall seems reasonable given the QB uncertainty, the national conversation around BYU—especially in 2024—never matched its on-field reality. ESPN’s Matt Barrie acknowledged the elephant in the room: the media’s role in shaping perception.
“It goes back to the perception of the Big 12. And also — look, we’re TV people. We chase the story. Deion had Colorado in the mix early, and that became the story. Even Iowa State had a run… Arizona State got hot with Skattebo,” Barrie said, before finally adding the kicker: “Meanwhile, BYU was kicking off at 10:15 Eastern. That’ll get you.” Barrie’s explanation highlights a major issue facing BYU.
December 27, 2024: BYU Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake speaking at press conference, PK, Pressekonferenz prior the NCAA, College League, USA Valero Alamo Bowl against the Colorado Buffalos at the Alamodome. San Antonio, Texas. /CSM San Antonio United States of America – ZUMAc04_ 20241227_faf_c04_013 Copyright: xMarioxCantux
Time slots and broadcast prioritization. With ESPN and FOX controlling Big 12 visibility windows, the networks stuck the Cougars in graveyard shifts. “I was in the studio every Saturday from 11:30 AM to 2:30 AM, and BYU games were late…” Barrie said. In the fast-paced world of highlight culture and East Coast biases, it’s hard to stay in the public’s consciousness when you’re Kalani Sitake’s team plays well, if they’re rarely seen, they’re rarely discussed—and that silence becomes disinterest in the eyes of voters and national media alike.
Still, the numbers suggest BYU could set itself up for a sneaky rebound. Connelly, despite the drop, sees a schedule that favors an early ramp-up. BYU opens the season with an FCS opponent, followed by a home gam against Stanford—projected to be among the Power Four’s worst. A bye week follows before a road trip to East Carolina. That stretch gives whoever wins the QB1 job a soft runway before the Cougars hit the meat of their schedule: a road game at Colorado, followed by home dates against Arizona and West Virginia.
The math still favors optimism. Even after Retzlaff’s exit, analysts still rank BYU as the fifth-highest Big 12 team in SP+ projections. The league is tight, with six teams between No. 26 and No. 35, meaning small shifts in center play or game planning could swing entire seasons. Without a star QB locked in, Kalani Sitake will need consistency from other spots, and most importantly, better national exposure. It’s hard to break through the noise when you’re not allowed in the room.
Kalani Sitake & BYU’s ultimate zig-zag puzzle
If you’re trying to make sense of BYU’s trajectory in the Big 12, don’t feel bad, ESPN analysts can’t either. In fact, even the stat wizard at ESPN has all but thrown up his hands trying to predict what Kalani Sitake’s team will look like from year to year. “That’s fine, though, because I’m always wrong about BYU,” Connelly admitted. “Kalani Sitake’s Cougars have been all over the map in recent years, zigging when I thought they’d zag.”
BYU’s post-Zach Wilson path looked like a rollercoaster riding a seesaw. After going 11-1 in that magical 2020 campaign, they held strong at 10-3 in 2021. It seemed like they were setting a new baseline. But nope. The next year? They dipped to 8-5 and fell all the way to 66th in SP+. And just when Connelly saw a bounce-back coming in 2023, they dropped to 5-7 and 76th in the same metric. “With quite a bit of turnover — and an unknown JUCO transfer at quarterback — there wasn’t much reason to assume a sudden surge in 2024,” he said. But what happened? “Then came a sudden surge.” BYU stormed into the top 10 and finished top-15 nationally with an 11-2 record.
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