“Today I fought against myself, against the mind,” Carlos Alcaraz said on Sunday, after making his way into the quarterfinals of the French Open. The battle against American youngster Ben Shelton wasn’t a cake walk for him. However, he kept fighting and eventually emerged victorious to keep his campaign alive. But the defending champion of the Parisian clay will now go through another American test. On Monday, he’s set to face Tommy Paul in a crucial encounter. The winner will simply head into the semis. So who’s going to come out stronger between these two? Let’s try to find out!
Carlos Alcaraz v Tommy Paul: Preview
Carlos Alcaraz kicked off his 2025 season on a remarkable note, reaching the QF at the Australian Open. He kept his form intact in subsequent events too. In Rotterdam, he won his maiden indoor hard court title and his first in 2025. In the summit clash, he bested Aussie Alex De Minaur. In Doha, he went on to enter the QF round. At the Indian Wells, where he was expected to pull off a three-peat (having won the trophy in 2023 and 2024), the former World No.1 managed his way to the semis. His campaign was stopped by the eventual winner, Jack Draper.
But then came a challenging phase that affected Alcaraz’s form. In Miami, he was ousted in the first round by Belgium’s David Goffin. The latter took the match with a score line of 5-7, 6-4, 6-3. While this defeat was huge, Alcaraz wasn’t deterred. In the next event, at the Monte Carlo Masters, he went on to lift the trophy. In Barcelona, he was on the brink of a second straight title. However, Denmark’s Holger Runn broke his dream in the summit clash. But guess what? The Spaniard did win his third ATP title of the season in Rome, eventually. Playing against his arch rival Jannik Sinner, Alcaraz dominated him and sealed the final contest with a score line of 7-6(5), 6-1.
Entering the Roland Garros, Alcaraz began his campaign with a straight set victory over Italy’s Giulio Zeppieri. He then ousted Hungarian Fábián Marozsán with a score line of 6-1, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2. In the third round, he took down Bosnia’s Damir Džumhur before defeating American Ben Shelton to enter the QF on the Parisian clay.
Image Credits: Carlos Alcaraz/Instagram
Speaking of his opponent Tommy Paul, the American’s 2025 season has been mostly stable. Back in January, he succeeded in reaching the quarterfinal round of the Adelaide International. He kept his consistency at the Australian Open, too. The 28-year-old made it to the QF stage before losing to Alexander Zverev. In Dallas, he then succeeded in entering the semis. Sadly, his form took a dip in subsequent events. At the Mexican Open, Indian Wells Masters, and Miami Open, he failed to go past the R16.
Fortunately for him, he found his footing in Houston where he reached the semifinal stage. While his run in Madrid was limited to R16, Paul made a stunning return, again, at the Italian Open last month. He made it to the semis before losing to World No.1 Sinner. At the French Open, Paul kicked off his campaign with a hard-earned win over Danish pro Elmer Møller. After losing the first set, the American made a solid return with a final score line of 6-7, 6-2, 6-3, 6-1. In the second round, he eliminated Hungary’s Márton Fucsovics before taking down Russia’s Karen Khachamo. On Sunday, Paul dominated Aussie Alexei Popyrin in the fourth round to enter the quarterfinals.
Alcaraz v Paul: Head-to-Head
Both players have faced each other six times across the ATP events. Currently, Alcaraz leads the H2H tally 4-2 against Paul. When they met the last time, it was during 2024 Paris Olympics. Back then, the Spaniard turned out to be the winner.
2024 Paris Olympics QF: Alcaraz 6-3, 7-6(7)
2024 Wimbledon QF: Alcaraz 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
2023 Cincinnati Masters R16: Alcaraz 7-6(6), 6-7, 6-3
2023 Canada Masters QF: Paul 6-3, 4-6, 6-3
2023 Miami Open R16: Alcaraz 6-4, 6-4
2022 Canada Masters R32: Paul 6-7(4), 7-6(7), 6-3
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets
Carlos Alcaraz is leading Tommy Paul when it comes to the singles stats this season. The defending champion of Roland Garros has clinched 34 of his 39 encounters, with an impressive win percentage of 87.17. On the other hand, the American has won 25 of his 34 matches (73.52 win percentage). But what about their event history?
Well, Alcaraz has been rising with each of his successive campaign at the French Open. In his last three appearances (2022, 2023, and 2024), he made it to the QF, then the semis, and ultimately lifted the trophy last season. In the final, he beat Germany’s Alexander Zverev with a score line of 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2. On the other hand, Paul’s past experience in Paris has been miserable to say the least. In his previous three campaigns (2022, 2023, and 2024), he couldn’t get past the first round, second round, and third round respectively. But this year, he’s finally earned his best run, while being in the quarterfinals.
Coming to their playing styles, Alcaraz is known for his unparalleled athleticism on the court. In short, he can swiftly adjust movement between the baseline and the net. Not to forget his mastery of hitting drop shots at will – at any point in the match. He also uses solid groundstrokes to build the pressure on his opponents to earn key points. On the other hand, Paul prefers to make more use of his dominant forehand. Combine that up with his amazing footwork at the baseline. He can also hit effective volleys from the net alongside his solid serves.
Taking the overall form and past stats into consideration, Alcaraz appears to be the clear favorite. The four-time slam champion is expected to win the quarterfinal round in straight sets against Paul on Monday.
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