Shane van Gisbergen has taken the NASCAR Cup Series by storm in his debut full season, rewriting the script with a road-course dominance that feels like something out of a racing epic. The New Zealander has clinched three straight wins on road and street circuits: Mexico City, Chicago Street Race, and Sonoma, all from the pole, putting him in rare company with icons like Jeff Gordon and Chase Elliott.
His Sonoma victory was historic, marking his fourth Cup Series win in just 34 starts, a milestone reached faster than anyone since Parnelli Jones in 1967. Tied with top-tier drivers like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell for three wins in 2025, van Gisbergen is matching the sport’s best.
His road-course brilliance has secured a multi-year contract extension with Trackhouse Racing, and as the series heads to Watkins Glen, he’s the clear favorite to notch a fourth consecutive road-course triumph. Yet, with the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs looming, SVG’s candid admission of uncertainty reveals the steep challenge ahead, even for a driver at the peak of his powers.
SVG’s playoff path
Shane van Gisbergen’s blunt “I have no idea” captures the unpredictability of his playoff prospects as he heads into the 2025 postseason. Sitting 25th among playoff qualifiers, he faces a daunting first round with races at Darlington, Bristol, and Gateway. His approach to racing without expectations stems from his limited experience on these ovals. He’s banking on improvement at familiar tracks, as seen in his Xfinity Series run at Darlington last year, where he jumped from 15th in the spring to seventh in the fall. This upward trend fuels his hope that returning to tracks like Darlington for a second time in the Cup Series could yield better results, despite modest finishes of 26th and 20th in his two prior starts there.
“But the first round is very difficult. I’m going to Darlington, which is my favorite oval, but the other two, Bristol and Gateway, I haven’t been to Gateway before, so it’s going to be very difficult. But if we get to the second round, it’s probably going to be easier than the first one, you know. So I don’t know how we’re going to end up. But I do feel like we’re improving every week. And you know our average running position or pace is trending in the right direction. So if we execute, who knows what can happen.”
Van Gisbergen’s acknowledgment of the first round’s difficulty highlights the challenge of the playoff opener. Darlington, his favorite oval, offers some comfort, but his prior Cup finishes there (26th and 20th) show room for growth. Gateway is uncharted territory, as he’s never raced there, and Bristol was a struggle, with a 38th-place finish due to suspension issues. His optimism hinges on weekly improvement, evidenced by his three 2025 road-course wins in Mexico City, Chicago Street, and Sonoma, which have earned him 17 playoff points, third-most behind Larson and Hamlin. If he can navigate the oval-heavy first round, the road-course-heavy second round, including the Charlotte Roval, plays to his strengths, giving him a shot to advance if execution is sharp.
When Justin Marks was asked about the same, he said, “I don’t know if I think of … what the goals are from like a finishing the standings position or anything like that. I mean I think … we have an opportunity to do with the 88 team is to go into the playoffs a lot of playoff points and be able to have, you know, somewhat of a cushion.”
Trackhouse Racing owner Justin Marks emphasizes a strategy focused on playoff points over specific standings goals. Van Gisbergen’s three road-course wins have netted the No. 88 team 17 playoff points, providing a buffer against potential early-round struggles. This cushion is critical given the tough first-round tracks: Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol, where SVG’s limited experience could be a hurdle. Mark’s approach prioritizes consistent execution to leverage those points, especially with van Gisbergen’s proven dominance on road courses like Mexico City, Chicago Street, and Sonoma, which have bolstered the team’s playoff position.
“So, you know, if we do a good job … at those first three races to be able to get to the second round … as the momentum continues to grow and as experience continues to grow … we get through that first round and … the round of eight is something that’s … very possible for us … then you’re really in the ___, those are the best guys … and that’s when it just gets hard.”
Marks outlines a pragmatic path forward, stressing that surviving the first round could set up the No. 88 team for a strong run in the Round of 12, where the Charlotte Roval’s road-course layout aligns with van Gisbergen’s expertise. His three 2025 road-course wins underscore his potential to excel in later rounds if the team can clear the oval-heavy opening trio. Marks sees the Round of 8 as achievable, but acknowledges the escalating difficulty against top competitors, with SVG’s growing experience and momentum as key factors.
Qualifying setback at Watkins Glen
“Man, it’s amazing how close it all is for a road course. My laps were OK, and there probably were some things I could have fixed. Decent start for tomorrow.” That was Shane van Gisbergen’s reaction to missing the pole at Watkins Glen by a mere three hundredths of a second reflects the razor-thin margins at play. Ryan Blaney edged him out with a lap of 1:11.960 in the No. 12 Ford, leaving SVG’s No. 88 Chevrolet (1:11.993) in second.
Despite his road-course dominance, winning from the pole in Mexico City, Chicago, and Sonoma, this qualifying result is a rare stumble. His comment about fixing small mistakes suggests confidence in his race-day potential, but starting second means he’ll need to outmaneuver a strong field, including Blaney, Chase Briscoe (third), Ross Chastain (fourth), and Kyle Busch (fifth), to keep his road-course streak alive and bolster his playoff points.
The qualifying loss stings for a driver gunning for a fourth straight road-course win, but it’s not a disaster. Blaney, a self-described “average road racer” with only three top-10s at Watkins Glen, called his pole a “cool” surprise, marking Team Penske’s 150th in Cup Series history. For van Gisbergen, the focus shifts to race day, where his road-course prowess, evidenced by a 16.567-second margin in Mexico City, could still shine. With the playoffs approaching and his first-round challenges looming, a strong Watkins Glen performance is crucial to maintain momentum and add to his 17 playoff points.
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