Fasten your seatbelts and grab your popcorn as Aryna Sabalenka is all set to take on America’s Madison Keys in a rematch of the 2025 AO final. Is she seeking revenge? Well, of course. “I really hope I can do a little bit better than I did in Australia…. [The final] only coming to my mind as motivation to get back that revenge,” said the Belarusian star ahead of this crackerjack of a contest. But hey, Keys has been literally unstoppable this year. Can she force yet another major upset by defeating the world number one in the epic SF clash at the 2025 Indian Wells Open?
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys: Preview
Aryna Sabalenka started this season impressively by clinching the title at the Brisbane International. However, she has been empty-handed ever since. In the Indian Wells, however, she has gotten off to a flying start and hasn’t dropped a set yet. After defeating Russia’s Liudmila Samsonova by 6-2,6-3 in the QF, can she keep her straight sets winning run intact in the semis as well?
Aug 10, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Aryna Sabalenka sets up to return a ball to Amanda Anisimova (not pictured) during quarter finals at Sobeys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Well, talking about a winning streak, Madison Keys is currently on a 16-match winning streak! She has already won two titles this season. And, she will be entering the semifinal on the back of an impressive 6-1,6-1 victory over Belinda Bencic.
Sabalenka vs Keys: Head-to-Head
Aryna Sabalenka has crossed paths with Madison Keys six times in her career so far. Currently, she leads the H2H record against the American by a 4-2 margin.
2025 Australian Open Final: Keys 6-3,2-6,7-5.
2024 Beijing R16: Sabalenka 6-4,6-3.
2023 US Open SF: Sabalenka 0-6,7-6(1),7-6(5).
2023 Wimbledon QF: Sabalenka 6-2,6-4.
2021 Berlin R16: Keys 6-4,1-6,7-5.
2018 Cincinnati QF: Sabalenka 6-3,6-4.
Prediction: Sabalenka will win this epic duel in a three-set thriller
Although Madison Keys has been in better form this season, Aryna Sabalenka still seems to have an edge in this epic battle. Reason? Well, apart from leading the H2H record, we must not forget that Sabalenka also reached the final here in Indian Wells in 2023. Keys’ best record in this tournament before this SF run was reaching the QF in 2022.
Talking about their numbers this season, Sabalenka (1) currently has a win-loss record of 16-3, while it’s 18-1 for Keys (5). Well, these are highly impressive numbers from both, but Keys has been on another level of late. She will also have the support of the local crowd, boosting her confidence, and that might come in handy at the crucial junctures of the match. However, Sabalenka’s best tennis has always come on hard courts. So, you can only write her off at your own peril,
As far as their playing styles are concerned, Keys is known for her big first serve and powerful forehand. She has already hit around 88 aces this season, and it’ll be interesting to see how many more she adds to that tally at the end of this tournament. Her aggressive baseline game can really be effective on this surface. She heavily relies on her groundstrokes to win points. The American loves dictating the rallies from the baseline, and her incredible tactical acumen can put Sabalenka in dicey situations.
Sabalenka, on the flip side, is more of a baseliner with a powerful, aggressive style of play. She can generate a lot of power with her serves and groundstrokes. Her game is based more on taking control of points and hitting winners. If she manages to get a grip on this match right from the start, it might get wrapped up pretty quickly. But that looks very unlikely, given Keys’ form at the moment.
It’s most likely to be a three-setter, but the Belarusian will start this match as a favorite, and should win to advance to the summit clash.
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