Italian Open 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

“The way he plays is huge, and I have to be ready for that. I think it’s going to be a great battle,” Carlos Alcaraz said, ahead of his QF clash against Jack Draper in Rome. He is aware of the Brit’s toughness. After all, Draper bested him this season, nearly two months ago in Indian Wells. While Jack Draper will look to dominate the Spaniard once again, the former World No.1 will try to take one step closer to the summit clash of the Italian Open this week. The two ATP pros are set to take on each other in the Round of 8 on Wednesday. So, who will have the last laugh this time? Let’s try to find out!

Carlos Alcaraz v Jack Draper: Preview

Carlos Alcaraz kickstarted his 2025 season with an impressive run down under. Back in January, he reached the QF stage before losing against 24-time slam champion, Novak Djokovic. He extended his solid form in Rotterdam, winning a maiden indoor hard-court title. In the summit clash, he bested Aussie Alex de Minaur with a score line of  6-4, 3-6, 6-2. Then in Doha, too, he showed a promising run, making it to the last eight.

At the Indian Wells Masters, he was expected to pull off a three-peat but failed to do so. In the SF stage, eventual winner Jack Draper ousted him with a score line of 6-1, 0-6, 6-4. Going into Miami, he faced a huge setback. Belgium’s David Goffin ousted him in the first round itself with a score line of 5-7, 6-4, 6-3. However, the four-time slam champion bounced back soon. At the Monte Carlo Masters, he went on to win his second ATP trophy of this season. In the final, he beat Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti with a score line of 6-3, 1-6, 6-0.

Alcaraz was on the verge of claiming a third title in 2025, having reached the summit clash in Barcelona. However, Denmark’s Holger Rune stunned him 7-6(6), 6-2. Coming to the Italian Open, the Spaniard began his campaign on a great note. He beat Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic in straight sets before taking down another Serbian, Laslo Djere, in R32. Then, in R16, on Tuesday, he ousted Russia’s Karen Khachanov to make it into the QF round in Rome.

Speaking of Jack Draper, his 2025 season has been highly impressive so far. Back in January, he made it to the fourth round of the Australian Open before withdrawing due to an injury in the QF against Alcaraz. In his next event, at the Qatar Open, he reached the final but couldn’t lift the trophy against Andrey Rublev. However, he had a title-winning run at the Indian Wells, where he outperformed Denmark’s Rune in the final to win his maiden ATP 1000 Masters title.

In the next two tournaments, Draper failed to be consistent. At the Miami Open and the Monte Carlo Masters, he crashed out in R64 and R16, respectively. However, he bounced back in Madrid, where he made it to the final, before losing to the eventual champ, Casper Ruud.

In the Italian Open, Draper began his campaign with a straight-set win over Italy’s Luciano Darderi. Then in the R32, he took down Czechia’s Vit Kopriva before edging out Frenchman Corentin Moutet (1-6, 6-4, 6-3) in R16.

Alcaraz v Draper: Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper have met five times across ATP events. Currently, Alcaraz leads the h2h tally 3-2 against Draper. When they faced each other the last time, it was Draper who emerged victorious at the Indian Wells Masters.

2025 Indian Wells Masters SF: Draper 6-1, 0-6, 6-4
2025 Australian Open R16: Alcaraz 7-5, 6-1 (Draper retired)
2024 Queen’s Club R16: Draper 7-6(3),6-3
2023 Indian Wells Masters R16: Alcaraz 6-2, 2-0 (Draper retired)
2022 Basel R32: Alcaraz 3-6, 6-2, 7-5

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in three sets

Carlos Alcaraz has an edge over Jack Draper in terms of the win-loss record this season. But the Brit is not too far behind. While Alcaraz has won 27 of his 32 matches with a win percentage of 84.37, Draper has snatched victories in 22 of his 27 encounters with a win percentage of 81.48.

But how have they fared in Rome in the past? Alcaraz has played only once in Rome before. Back in 2023, he couldn’t move beyond R32 after losing to Hungarian Fábián Marozsán. However, this time he has already improved that record. When it comes to Draper, he has also competed at the Italian Open only once. It was last season when he failed to go past R64, losing to Daniil Medvedev.

Coming to their playing styles, Alcaraz’s incredible athleticism on the court makes him a nightmare for his opponents. Add to that his unmatchable drop shots and powerful groundstrokes during long rallies. Draper, on the other hand, likes to dominate from the baseline. He’s also pretty good in terms of court coverage. Add to that his slice serves, which help him earn crucial points.

Considering the recent form of these two players and their overall ability, Carlos Alcaraz seems to be the favorite going into this encounter. While Draper may pose a serious chalenge, the Spaniard is still expected to win the match in three sets and advance to the semis.

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