Naomi Osaka had to make some “real-time adjustments” when she kicked off her Rome campaign earlier this week. Expecting to play Spain’s Paula Badosa – who withdrew at the last minute due to a persistent injury – the Japanese star instead faced a lucky loser, Swiss pro Viktorija Golubic. While the latter proved to be an out-of-syllabus question for Osaka, the four-time slam queen eventually emerged victorious to keep her Italian Open run alive. However, she’s still got a long road ahead. On Saturday, the former World No.1 will take on Czechia’s Marie Bouzkova. So who will have the last laugh between the two?
Naomi Osaka v Marie Bouzkova: Preview
Naomi Osaka’s 2025 season has been marred by injury woes and poor form. At the start of the year, she impressed at the ASB Classic, reaching the summit clash. However, the 27-year-old had to withdraw due to her abdominal injury. Then at the Australian Open, too, she was forced out of the competition because of her abdominal strain in the third round against Belinda Bencic. As a result, she took a month-long recovery break. After returning, however, Osaka failed to create an impact at the Indian Wells. Colombia’s Camila Osorio ousted her in the first round itself in straight sets.
In Miami, too, she couldn’t go beyond R16 after losing to Italy’s Jasmine Paolini. Osaka faced yet another first round exit in Madrid after Italy’s Lucia Bronzetti edged her out with a score line of 6-4, 2-6, 6-4. Fortunately, the two-time Australian Open queen regained her lost momentum at the WTA 125 Saint-Malo. Osaka went on to clinch her maiden clay court title in this event and a first after four years since winning the 2021 Australian Open. In the summit clash, she beat Slovenia’s Kaja Juvan with a score line of 6-1, 7-5.
On Wednesday, the Japanese star kicked off her Italian Open campaign on a high note. She bested Italy’s Sara Errani in straight sets, before taking down lucky loser Viktorija Golubic in a three-setter to enter the R32. The Swiss pro took the first set 6-2 but Osaka came back strongly and took the match with a final score line of 2-6, 7-5, 6-1.
Speaking of her opponent, Czechia’s Marie Bouzkova’s 2025 season has been lackluster lately. She began the year on a promising note, making it to the QF stage in Brisbane. But in the next event in Adelaide, she couldn’t go past R32 after losing to Russia’s Liudmila Samsonova. Down under, she was edged out in the first round itself. Teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva beat her with a score line of 6-3, 6-3.
In the next two events, Bouzkova faced back-to-back early exits. At the Indian Wells and Miami Open, she was ousted in R128 successively. A moment of relief came at the Copa Colsanitas. There, the Czechian reached the QF before losing to Poland’s Katarzyna Kawa. However, the poor form caught up again in Madrid. She failed to go beyond R64 after losing to Andreeva in straight sets. However, it seems she’s got on to the winning ways in Rome.
Earlier this week, she began the campaign with a straight-set victory over Egypt’s Mayar Sherif in R128. Then in R64, Bouzkova edged out Brazil’s Beatriz Haddad Maia (6-0, 6-3) to make it into the R32.
Osaka v Bouzkova: Head-to-Head
Both players have faced each other twice across WTA events. Currently, Osaka leads the h2h tally 2-0 against Bouzkova. When they met the last time, it was nearly four years ago at the US Open. In the first round, the Japanese pro eventually emerged victorious.
2021 US Open First Round: Osaka 6-4, 6-1
2020 Australian Open First Round: Osaka 6-2, 6-4
Prediction: Naomi Osaka to win in straight sets
Naomi Osaka is having a solid advantage over Marie Bouzkova in terms of their singles stats this season. With a win percentage of 76.19, the four-time slam queen has clinched victories in 16 of her 21 matches. On the other hand, the Czechian has won 8 of her 15 encounters.
Osaka’s best campaign at the Italian Open came in 2021. She managed to reach the QF before losing against Netherlands’ Kiki Bertens. But in her last two appearances (2021 and 2024), she failed to go past R32 and R16 respectively. When it comes to Bouzkova, she’s played only twice in Rome. In 2020, she failed to move beyond R32 after losing to Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina. Then in 2023, she was ousted in R16 against Kudermetova in straight sets.
Speaking of their playing styles, Osaka is known for her aggressive approach and a solid serve. Combine that up with a powerful forehand and a two-handed backhand. Her athleticism on the court is amazing as well. In simple words, she can adjust easily between the baseline and the net. On the other hand, Bouzkova prefers to dominate from the baseline using her effective forehand and backhand strokes. Combine that up with an excellent court coverage.
Now taking into account the overall form and previous encounters, Naomi Osaka appears to be the absolute favorite. On Saturday, the Japanese WTA pro is expected to complete the hat-trick of wins against Bouzkova in straight sets.
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