“That’s the one where your heart’s telling you Charles, your brain says Ilia. Can’t count Charles out,” declared UFC star Sean O’Malley last week, capturing the excitement — and inner conflict — fans feel ahead of UFC 317’s blockbuster main event: Charles Oliveira vs. Ilia Topuria. Even while preparing for his own title bout at UFC 316, O’Malley couldn’t help but weigh in on what many consider one of the most anticipated matchups of the year.
The fight for the vacant lightweight title between Brazilian veteran and the surging former featherweight king is set to take place. The two fighters will clash at the T-Mobile Arena on June 28th during International Fight Week. With UFC 316 behind us, all focus has shifted toward this high-stakes battle. Many fans and oddsmakers are siding with the younger and more explosive Ilia Topuria, positioning the Georgian-Spaniard as the early favorite.
However, not everyone agrees with that narrative. UFC color commentator and longtime podcast host Joe Rogan offered a measured warning during the UFC 316 live event, reminding viewers not to underestimate Charles Oliveira. Rogan remarked, “This is a really excellent fight for the vacant LW title. Big strong powerful Charles Oliveira… One of the most elite… This is a challenge for Ilia Topuria.”
Ilia Topuria had initially hoped to face Islam Makhachev, who is poised to become the lightweight champion. However, ‘El Matador’s plans took a hit when a domino effect unfolded: Belal Muhammad, a close friend of “Team Khabib,” was defeated by Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 last month.
This victory cleared the way for Islam Makhachev to become a two-division champion, as Muhammad was no longer an obstacle to accomplishing what his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov could not. The Russian phenom is expected to retain the lightweight title through UFC 317, effectively holding the door open until either the Georgian or the Brazilian contender claims the championship.
‘Team Khabib’ predicts the Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira fight at UFC 317
Ilia Topuria has been on Islam Makhachev’s radar since last year, when the Dagestani standout became the first fighter to break Max Holloway’s famed granite chin at UFC 308. Despite this, Makhachev and his ‘Team Khabib’ have consistently dismissed the idea that ‘EL Matador’ deserves a direct title shot. Instead, they’ve insisted that the Georgian prove himself first by facing top contenders like Justin Gaethje or Arman Tsarukyan, pointing to Makhachev’s own notable victories over featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski—whom he defeated twice.
“No, man. I’m tired of giving chance to small guys,” Islam Makhachev said at Friday’s UFC 311 press conference in Las Vegas. “I need my second belt. It’s nothing exciting,” a stance that has created tension between Ilia Topuria and Team Khabib, including the 155lbs champion himself.
Still, when it comes to predictions for the upcoming Charles Oliveira vs. Ilia Topuria fight for the vacant lightweight title, Team Khabib’s manager Ali Abdelaziz expressed strong faith in ‘El Matador’ during an interview with Submission Radio: “Yeah, I think he beats Charles! I think he’d knock Charles out! Stylistically, I think he’d beat Charles. But you never know. He almost lost to Jai Herbert. Almost got knocked out by Jai Herbert. MMA is crazy. He went five rounds with what’s his name? Three rounds with Youssef Zelal, and five rounds with the guy from Alpha Male, Josh Emmett.”
With so many opinions and analyses swirling, where do you stand for UFC 317? Will Charles Oliveira become a two-time champion, or will Ilia Topuria rise to become a two-division champion? Share your prediction below.
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