In the middle of the Warriors’ many offseason questions sits Jonathan Kuminga, and his next contract might be the trickiest one to answer. He’s 22, coming off his second-best season, free agency territory, and whatnot. That’s a lot of leverage for a player who knows exactly how important he’s become, and a lot of pressure on a team already running up one of the league’s most expensive tabs. The Warriors say they want Kuminga. Kuminga says he wants to be here, which sounds simple until you remember that in the NBA, “wanting” is rarely the problem.
The question is price, timing, and whether either side blinks first. Both sides know someone has to swerve, but right now, nobody’s blinking. The latest twist comes courtesy of Marcus Thompson and Tim Kawakami on the Warriors Plus/Minus podcast. The duo painted a picture of a franchise dangling $45 million over two years… with a catch. One analyst summed it up bluntly: “They are offering more money than anybody… It’s not that much. It’s 21 or whatever the number is, but he’ll never get that money back. Literally will never.” Translation?
Take it now, or risk losing it forever. But the Warriors’ generosity has a condition. The second year isn’t fully guaranteed. Instead, it’s a team option, a built-in eject button for the front office. Kuminga’s camp? Not exactly swooning. As one analyst questioned, “Why is he giving up his no-trade for a no guarantee?” If he’s going to sign away control over where he plays, he wants something more concrete than the Warriors’ promise of “flexibility.” This isn’t just about one player’s paycheck.
That $21 million figure has ripple effects across the roster. If Kuminga signs, it swallows cap space that could otherwise sweeten deals for veterans like Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, or Gary Payton II. Decline it, and suddenly there’s room to toss a couple more million their way. As one analyst put it, “If we’re not paying them 21, we’re paying them 18… Horford will give you a couple more million because it’s coming out of Kuminga’s number.” And well, that’s not even half of it.
Dec 6, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) speaks with forward Jonathan Kuminga (00) during a time out against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the fourth quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images
He could take the deal, guarantee himself life-changing money, and embrace his role in Golden State’s next chapter. Or he could gamble on himself, sign the $7.9 million qualifying offer next summer, and become an unrestricted free agent in 2026 with zero strings attached. That path comes with risk, especially for a player who, as one analyst reminded, “hasn’t had the big money yet” and once missed two months with a sprained ankle. Yet there’s an allure to betting on yourself.
If Kuminga believes he can break out, there’s no better time… especially when whispers suggest teams like Sacramento might be willing to hand him the keys to their offense. As one analyst mused, “If you got a team saying like Sacramento, you’re gonna start… you’re gonna be a centerpiece… I would definitely prefer that.” Now, the tricky part is, the Warriors and Jonathan Kuminga have been locked in contract talks that, until recently, felt like a slow dance with no end in sight. Then came word of an unexpected path forward, one that could solve the money problem, settle the roster questions, and end this back-and-forth before it gets messy.
Kuminga holds future roster hostage… or does he?
Alex Toohey, a 21-year-old Australian forward drafted late last year, is quietly waiting for his chance. With ties to Andrew Bogut and Luc Longley, Toohey brings a direct line to the Warriors’ culture and coaching philosophies. In the Summer League, he averaged 6.8 points and 3.8 rebounds in 21.6 minutes, showing flashes of potential despite a shaky 26.2% shooting. According to sources, he gives the Golden State Warriors a potential safety valve, signaling that Kuminga’s negotiations don’t completely handcuff the team.
Jan 4, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga (00) drives to the basket against the Memphis Grizzlies in the second quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images
The proposed solution insiders are buzzing about involves a delicate balance, that is, Kuminga could accept the $45 million, two-year contract with the partially guaranteed second year, while retaining some leverage for trade flexibility. This middle ground gives Golden State the security to plan the rest of the roster, including veteran considerations like Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton, without losing the promise of their young star. And this is where things get messy for the Warriors.
A long-term commitment means accepting the volatility in hopes that the peaks will outshine the valleys. A short-term, partially guaranteed deal preserves trade flexibility, especially if Joe Lacob wants to keep every movable asset alive for a blockbuster. For Kuminga, the team option is the sticking point. Without it, he could hold a no-trade clause by signing a one-year deal. With it, the Warriors could ship him to Charlotte, Detroit, or anywhere else without his blessing.
As one analyst quipped, “Don’t you want to be traded? What team would he not want to be traded to… Charlotte?” That’s the paradox: wanting out, but wanting to choose the destination. For the Warriors, every cent matters when they’re dancing on the edge of the luxury tax. So here we are, two cars hurtling toward the cliff. Training camp looms like a wall at the end of the road, and deadlines have a way of forcing hands. The question is whether Kuminga slams the brakes for financial security or keeps the pedal down, betting the cliff is just a mirage.
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