The Virginia Derby was expected to be a defining moment for trainers and their Kentucky Derby hopefuls, and it certainly delivered—but not in the way that many had anticipated. Bob Baffert’s Getaway Car, the heavy favorite heading into the race, failed to live up to expectations, whereas American Promise put on a show-stopping performance that changed the Derby landscape.
With the prep season entering its final stretch, trainers like Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas now face tough decisions about which horses to send to Churchill Downs. With only a few races left offering enough points to guarantee a Derby spot, the pressure is on. However, with Baffert still boasting a strong stable of contenders, is Getaway Car’s misstep a cause for concern or just a bump in the road?
Virginia Derby recap – hits and misses
The biggest takeaway from the Virginia Derby: American Promise is for real. The colt, who entered the race with just one win in eight career starts, finally put it all together. He pressed the pace early, pulled away with ease, and finished nearly eight lengths ahead of the field. The performance earned him 50 Kentucky Derby points, bringing his total to 55—more than enough to secure a spot in the Derby starting gate.
Meanwhile, Getaway Car’s fourth-place finish was a letdown. Coming off a victory in the Sunland Park Derby, the Baffert trainee was expected to dominate, but he faded late after leading early. This raised concerns about whether he can handle the Derby’s demanding 1 1/4-mile distance. Now sitting at 46 points, he remains on the bubble for qualification, but Baffert may need to adjust his Derby strategy.
Other notable finishes included Render Judgment (2nd place, 29 Derby points) and Omaha Omaha (3rd place, 26 points). Both solid performances, but still leaving their connections with tough decisions. Do they push forward and try to collect more points in a final prep race, or will they sit and hope that others drop out of contention?
Baffert’s Horses: who’s still in the Derby hunt?
Even though Getaway Car came up short, Bob Baffert still has multiple strong Derby contenders.
Citizen Bull – Baffert’s best shot
If Baffert is banking on one horse to make an impact at Churchill Downs, it’s Citizen Bull. He’s already locked in with multiple stakes wins, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). The Into Mischief colt has already proven he can handle top-tier competition. And with his versatility, he might be Baffert’s best shot at a seventh Kentucky Derby win.
Madaket Road – a long shot?
While Madaket Road has flashed potential, his second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes and third-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis left questions about his ability to win at this level. With 20 Derby points, he still needs a strong finish in one of the final prep races to qualify. If he delivers, Baffert could have three horses heading to Churchill Downs—but if not, he may need to shift focus to Citizen Bull and Getaway Car.
The road ahead – final Kentucky Derby prep races
The Virginia Derby was the last 50-point prep race, meaning we are entering the final stretch, where 100-point races will decide the Derby field. These upcoming races will offer enough points to guarantee qualification, making them must-watch events.
Upcoming Key Races:
Jeff Ruby Steaks (Turfway Park) – March 23
Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds) – March 23
UAE Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes – April 5
Lexington Stakes (Keeneland, 20 points to winner) – April 12
For horses like Getaway Car and Madaket Road, the Santa Anita Derby or Blue Grass Stakes could be their final shot at making the Derby. But even with enough points, performances matter. No trainer wants to enter a horse that isn’t peaking at the right time.
The next three weeks will decide who truly belongs at Churchill Downs. For Bob Baffert, it’s all about strategy—does he stick with Getaway Car despite his Virginia Derby letdown, or does he shift focus entirely to Citizen Bull?
As for the rest of the Derby hopefuls, it’s time to prove they belong on racing’s biggest stage. With 100-point races on the horizon, the final Derby picture is far from set. But one thing’s for sure—this road to the Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a wild ride.
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