The New York Mets are sitting comfortably atop the National League East, and a good thing is that their season is centered on dominant pitching. Their league-leading 2.98 ERA has provided the foundation of their 45-28 record. But a recent four-game losing streak and a rash of injuries have revealed some troubling cracks in their armor. The team is now faced with a bitter pill: their greatest strength is suddenly their most pressing problem, a decline that has baseball insiders talking.
This alarming dip in performance stems directly from the rotation’s health. The loss of ace Kodai Senga to a right hamstring injury is a crushing one. No one is replacing his MLB-best 1.47 ERA. The situation is not helped by the fact that Tylor Megill is suffering from an elbow sprain, further sidelining another key arm. And with them gone, the pressure has intensified. Griffin Canning has been hit hard of late, and Paul Blackburn, forced into a starting duty, has a not-so-great 6.75 ERA as he adjusts to his new routine.
On their NY Post baseball podcast, “The Show,” veteran insiders Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman dissected this very issue. Heyman noted the severity of the Senga injury, confirming the grim reality for Mets fans. “Senga certainly will be 5 weeks minimum. So yeah, a lot of issues right now, even though they’re at the top of the heap in an ERA list, they’ve got a lot of issues right now.”
However, Heyman was quick to point out the team’s saving grace: a high-powered offense capable of picking up the slack. He believes the lineup can mask some of the pitching deficiencies. “Their lineup is going to be even better than it’s been so far. And Alonso is having a great year, Lindor is having a great year, and Soto is coming around. So they will cover up some of this with the offense.” The numbers back him up. Pete Alonso is a beast; 17 homers, 63 RBI. The pairing of Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto has 28 home runs, and the team’s .331 OBP ranks third in MLB. That offensive firepower has the Mets in a position to win even on days when their pitching isn’t there.
So why the concern? Heyman crystallized the issue, suggesting the pitching staff’s early dominance was simply unsustainable, especially with the recent injuries.”But I guess we couldn’t have expected the pitching to have maintained that the level that they’d shown the first two months.”The recent bullpen meltdowns and the struggles of replacement starters confirm this sentiment. The gap between their league-best ERA and their 14th-ranked WHIP (1.248) always hinted that some regression was possible. That regression has now arrived.
With the problems clearly identified, the critical question becomes: What can the Mets do to stabilize things and stop the bleeding to protect their lead? The answers lie both within the organization and on the open market.
Navigating the crisis: The Mets’ path forward
The most immediate help must come from within. Priority No. 1 remains getting Senga and Megill healthy, but there is still no precise date for their return. The rehabilitation of Frankie Montas (13.17 ERA) and Sean Manaea (6.23 ERA) has been disappointing. And they can’t be relied upon to come to the rescue anytime soon. Lefty reliever Brooks Raley is getting closer to returning from Tommy John surgery. And that would fill a huge hole in the bullpen.
Further down the line in the system, the Mets have some interesting prospects. Brandon Sproat, the team’s second-best prospect, has been trending in the right direction at Triple-A as he has posted a 2.95 ERA over his last four starts. At Double-A, Jonah Tong (1.99 ERA) and Nolan McLean (1.98 ERA) are dominating. While President of Baseball Operations David Stearns is cautious about rushing prospects, the current crisis may force his hand sooner than expected.
If internal options aren’t enough, the Mets must look to the trade deadline. They desperately need another reliable starting arm and a left-handed reliever. A rental like Red Sox closer Aroldis Chapman (1.71 ERA) could quickly fix their lefty issue. For the rotation, a controllable arm like the Marlins’ Edward Cabrera or the Rockies’ Jake Bird could provide stability without depleting the farm system, a key goal for Stearns.
The rotation aside, the bullpen has been a tremendous strength. Closer Edwin Díaz continues to shine with a 2.22 ERA and 15 saves. Set-up men Huascar Brazobán (1.64 ERA) and Reed Garrett (0.95 ERA) have been lights out in just about every game they’ve pitched in. This bullpen arms depth has been a lifesaver in winning games and keeping the club from sinking. Can this powerful offense and stellar bullpen hold the line long enough? Or will the only solution to the Mets’ championship dreams be a trade?
The post Kodai Senga’s Absence Hits Hard as Mets Swallow Bitter Pill Amid Alarming Decline in Rotation Strength appeared first on EssentiallySports.
