Lincoln Riley took the reins at USC in 2022, igniting hopes of a new golden era. And his debut season delivered, with the Trojans storming through the regular season, dropping just 2 games. On top of that, his offensive genius was on full display, bringing back flashes of his past success. But fast forward, and the shine is starting to fade. Doubts are creeping in, and the once-rock-solid optimism is shaking. Right now, a massive $90 million contract provision hangs in the balance, caught in the storm of uncertainty. And Riley’s future at USC? Suddenly, it’s not as secure as it once seemed.
Look, USC’s decline under Lincoln Riley is hard to ignore. In 2023, the Trojans went 8-5 with a 5-4 record in the Big Ten. Last season, things got worse—finishing 7-6 overall and 4-5 in conference play. Safe to say, the downward trend has fans questioning Riley’s future in L.A. And on the March 13 episode of the Cover 3 Podcast, Chip Patterson, Danny Kanell, Tom Fornelli, and Bud Elliott debated whether Riley would be on the hot seat if USC underperforms again. And when the question came up – ‘What happens if the Trojans finish 7-5 or 8-4?’ – Tom Fornelli didn’t hold back from saying: “It means he’s on the hot seat.” It’s a bombshell statement, yes, but is he wrong?
Then came the real reason regarding why Riley might be in trouble—even if USC improves. Well, it’s not just about the record; it’s about who they beat and who they lose to. And Fornelli broke it down, saying, “Like, you look at their schedule… A lot of this depends on who you beat and who you lost to at the end of the day. Some wins could buy you a little bit more. But if you’re USC, the good news is when you look at your schedule next year, LSU is not on it. The opener has been replaced with Missouri State, so okay, that should be a win.” To be honest, although it is a softer start, the real test comes later.
Fornelli summed it up perfectly, saying, “But then they get to: at Illinois, Michigan, at Notre Dame, at Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, at Oregon, UCLA. So, it could be a rough finish.” As of now, for USC to change the narrative, they have to start strong. As Fornelli pointed out, “They should start off four and O [zero].” But that’s easier said than done. Honestly, with recency bias playing a huge role in these decisions, even an early hot streak might not be enough if they collapse down the stretch.
Last season, USC battled against powerhouses like LSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Minnesota. But they couldn’t secure wins over Michigan or Notre Dame and so on. Now, they’re set to face those same challenges again. And Fornelli weighed in on what it means for Lincoln Riley, saying, “So, if they get to eight and four, I don’t think he gets fired. I think that he’s fine. Then there’s more optimism going into next year, kind of being like, ‘All right, next year we have to take that step forward or we’re done and we’re moving on.‘”
But what if they fall short? As Tom put it, stating, “If he goes seven and five, I don’t think—I still think he gets another season, but I don’t think anybody’s happy.” But the reason? That’s where things get interesting. And pointing out the reason, Bud Elliott broke it down, saying, “Yeah, I think he’s probably safe at both numbers because the buyout is—is rumored to be pretty huge.” So, while the $90 million safety net looms under a blunt verdict, Lincoln Riley might still hold onto his spot at USC.
But why? Maybe because his aggressive blueprint for the program still carries weight. Right now, even with mounting pressure, the Trojans may not be ready to cut ties just yet.
Lincoln Riley’s aggressive recruitment
Riley and the Trojans are at a crossroads, and their bid to become a true B1G powerhouse hinges on this season. But turmoil is brewing, with key players like Emmanuel Pregnon, Zachariah Branch, Duce Robinson, and so on, heading for the exit. While the roster shake-up has fueled doubts, hope still remains. According to reports by John Talty, former Notre Dame GM Chad Bowden injects a much-needed spark into the program. So amid the uncertainty about the head coach, USC is banking on Bowden’s recruiting magic to turn the tide.
However, Bowden isn’t just a hire—he’s a statement, and his arrival proves that Riley’s recruiting vision is clear and aggressive. And Bowden made that loud and clear, saying “We’ll be very aggressive in recruiting guys that are committed. We’re going to be on those kids more so than the guys we’re trying to get committed because they’re already part of our family, and we see it that way. They need to be taken care of more than the kid we’re just recruiting and is deciding between multiple schools.”
As of now, in a time of uncertainty, Bowden’s approach could be the glue that keeps USC’s foundation from cracking. Despite facing major setbacks, Lincoln Riley has built the nation’s top 2026 recruiting class—a wild feat given the challenges along the way. Safe to say, love them or hate them, the Trojans are making moves, and their recruiting dominance is proof they aren’t backing down. Now, let’s wait and see.
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