It’s been less than six months since the new season began, and World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka has already reached five WTA event finals! In the first one, she emerged victorious in Brisbane but then couldn’t pull off a three-peat in Australia, losing against Madison Keys. Then it was time for the Indian Wells where she missed on her first title in the Californian desert against 17-year-old sensation Mirra Andreeva.
However, the three-time slam queen then lifted her second trophy of the season, defeating Jessica Pegula in Miami. Playing in her third-straight summit clash in three events, Stuttgart didn’t go well for her against Jelena Ostapenko. But reaching five finals in a span of just four months is no joke. Now in Madrid, she looks to make it into the sixth final. In R16, she will hope to take one step closer to the championship battle against American Peyton Stearns on Tuesday.
Aryna Sabalenka v Peyton Stearns: Preview
Aryna Sabalenka began the year on a phenomenal note, winning the Brisbane International. In the final, she beat Russian Polina Kudermetova in three sets. Then, down under, she seemed like a champion until she faced Madison Keys in the epic summit clash. The American broke her dream of winning a third-straight Australian Open trophy. This defeat heavily affected Sabalenka’s form. In the next event, at the Qatar Open, she was ousted early in the first round. The same was the case in Dubai, too, where she couldn’t move past R16 after losing to Clara Tauson.
But being the World No.1, Sabalenka showed her class in subsequent events. At the Indian Wells, she succeeded in reaching the championship battle before losing against Andreeva. The Belarusian then shone in the second half of the Sunshine Double. At the Miami Open, she won the trophy with a straight-set win over formidable rival Jessica Pegula. Entering Stuttgart next, the three-time slam queen looked in great touch and reached the final.
Unfortunately, she lost to Latvian pro Jelena Ostapenko. At the Madrid Open, Sabalenka has maintained her consistency. She began her campaign with a straight-set victory in R64, over Russian Anna Blinkova. She then took down Belgium’s Elise Mertens in R32 on Sunday to make it to the R16.
Speaking of her opponent, American Peyton Stearns’ 2025 season has been forgettable at best so far. Back in January, she was ousted in R32 of the Brisbane International. A similar fate followed in Adelaide, too, after losing to Spain’s Paula Badosa. Then at the Australian Open, compatriot Emma Navarro ousted her in the first round itself.
In her next seven WTA appearances, Stearns consistently failed to make deep runs. At the Winners Open, Qatar Open, Dubai, ATX Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and Charleston, she crashed out in R16, R32, R16, R32, R128, R64, and R32, respectively. Coming into the Madrid Open, however, it seems Stearns has finally got her momentum. She began her stint with a three-set win over Australia’s Kimberley Birrell. The American then ousted compatriot Amanda Anisimova in R64. On Sunday, she eliminated Swiss pro Rebeka Masarova and entered the R16 stage.
Sabalenka v Stearns: Head-to-Head
Both players have met only once across WTA events. Currently, Sabalenka leads the h2h tally 1-0 against Stearns.
2024 Indian Wells R64: Sabalenka 6-7, 6-2, 7-6
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets
Aryna Sabalenka has a huge lead over Peyton Stearns with a staggering singles record this season. The Belarusian has won 28 of her 33 matches so far, having a win percentage of 84.84. The American, on the other hand, has had a poor run this season (9-10).
When it comes to event history, Sabalenka’s been highly successful at the Madrid Open. After all, she’s a former title winner too. Back in 2021, she won her maiden trophy, defeating Ashleigh Barty in the final. Then two years later, in 2023, she outplayed five-time slam champion Iga Swiatek to win the event for the second time. Even last year, she ended up as runner-up after Swiatek took revenge and beat her in the final battle. Speaking of Stearns, she’s played only one campaign in Madrid. Last season, she crashed out in the first round after losing to German player Tatjana Maria.
Now, what about their playing styles? Well, Sabalenka is known for her aggression and solid serves on the court. Combine that with her powerful groundstrokes, which she relies on to dominate rallies. On the other hand, Stearns is known for forcing long rallies onto her rivals to earn crucial points. She also prefers to use her dependable forehand to dominate the action from the baseline.
Considering the impressive stats the World No.1 has this season and the overall form, she looks to be the favorite. Aryna Sabalenka is expected to win the R16 encounter against Stearns on Tuesday in straight sets.
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