In 2018, when Coco Gauff clinched her first career junior Grand Slam title at the French Open, she was the fifth youngest to do so in French Open history. Four years later, in 2022, she reached the final at Roland Garros yet again, this time at the senior level, but only to be beaten by Iga Swiatek in straight sets. Ever since, Coco has shown flashes of brilliance on clay, reaching the SF in Rome and Paris, but she has struggled to land a title on clay. Even in Stuttgart recently, she couldn’t move past Jasmine Polini in the QF, losing to the Italian in straight sets. Can the 21-year-old turn things around this year as the Madrid Open approaches? Let’s delve into the possibilities.
The Mutua Madrid Open main draw was released on Sunday. This is the first WTA 1000 clay-court event, and 29 of the world’s Top 30 players are among the seeds (reigning Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejčíková is the missing Top 30 player due to injury).
If we take a look at Gauff’s projected path to glory in this tournament, well, she might have some tricky opponents in her way, including Denmark’s Clara Tauson, who is edging closer to a Top 20 debut, and the in-form Swiss star, Belinda Bencic who’s already back in the Top 50 after maternity leave.
Taking a closer look at the draw, Coco, the World No. 4, has received a BYE in the first round, and she could possibly face Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska in the second round. The American currently has a 2-0 lead over Yastremska and should move past her without breaking too much sweat if this face-off materializes.
In the next round, Coco may face Leylah Fernandez (CAN), whom she already defeated in the R32 of the 2025 AO. Despite having a 2-0 lead over the Canadian in the H2H record and not having lost a set to her, Gauff admitted after her AO win that playing Fernandez was tough. “[It’s] harder because she knows what to expect, and I definitely think she played a little bit differently. You’re trying to change up what you did last time because she’s expecting it,” she said.
If she beats Fernandez, Gauff may face either Clara Tauson or Belinda Bencic in the next round. The former US Open champion hasn’t played against Tauson yet, but she has a 2-2 record against Bencic. Both Tauson (ASB Classic) and Bencic (Abu Dhabi Open) have already won a title each this season, so this is going to be a really interesting contest.
If she gets past this round, Gauff could possibly face the 17-year-old Russian tennis sensation, Mirra Andreeva (7). Although Andreeva is yet to open her account (0-2) against the American, we must not forget she has already won two titles this season (Dubai Tennis Championships and Indian Wells Masters). So, overcoming this hurdle in the fourth round would certainly not be a ‘piece of cake’ for Coco!
Next up for Gauff lies the biggest challenge, i.e., the current world number 2, Iga Swiatek. If we go by the numbers, the Pole has a staggering 11-3 record against Gauff. However, Gauff’s win against Swiatek in the previous two encounters (2024 WTA Finals and 2025 United Cup) could possibly give her some confidence going into this encounter, if these two superstars cross paths in the SF.
If Gauff manages to beat Swiatek third time in a row and advance to the final, she could then possibly face Aryna Sabalenka in the ultimate battle for the title in Madrid. Sabalenka (1) has won this title two times (2021,2023), but interestingly, Gauff has a 5-4 lead over the Belarusian in the H2H stat.
[4] COCO GAUFF projected WTA 1000 MADRID draw :
R1 – BYE
R2 – Yastremska/Qualifier
R3 – Fernandez
R4 – Tauson/Bencic
QF – Andreeva/Muchova
SF – Swiatek/Keys/Ostapenko
F – Sabalenka/Pegula/Qinwen#MMOPEN #Madrid pic.twitter.com/V324qpsanX
— 𝗖𝗢𝗖𝗢 𝗚𝗔𝗨𝗙𝗙 🅽🅴🆆🆂 (@gauff_coco_News) April 20, 2025
Can Gauff overcome all these hurdles and win her first title in Madrid? Well, the 2025 season hasn’t gone well for the American so far. She has a win-loss record of just 14-6. She is intensifying her preparations for the clay court swing and has already made a few changes to her schedule this year.
Coco Gauff is trying her best to rediscover her best form on the clay court swing
In 2024, ahead of her first clay court tournament, i.e., the Stuttgart Open, Coco Gauff didn’t give herself much time. However, that was not the case this year. Coco revealed, “Yeah, I was already on clay right after Miami, basically. I got here early just because I felt like last year I maybe got here too late, but I also played on Wednesday last year. Yeah, I think this year I came a little bit early just to give myself more time to adjust to the clay and indoor conditions here, too. So, yeah, I think overall I think it was a good decision.“
Despite that, she went down to Jasmine Paolini in the QF of the Stuttgart Open in straight sets. The Italian Open defeated her 6-4,6-3. What must be concerning for her fans was that Gauff struggled with her serve again and was also unable to capitalize on the biggest moments of the match.
Gauff’s serving concerns have been a recurring problem for some time, and the WTA website confirms she was number one on the list for double faults on the entire women’s tour in 2025.
Interesting Fact: Prior to her matches in Stuttgart, Gauff had hit 121 double faults in her 18 matches this season!
Amidst these concerns, Serena Williams’ childhood Rick Macci, has backed Gauff to win multiple major titles! “This is a journey of winning/ losing staggers/ daggers. She will win multiple Grand Slams and be number one in the future. Everybody freaks out when you lose/Struggle but [if] you win everybody loves to Snuggle,” Macci wrote on X.
What do you think about Coco Gauff’s prospects this season? Are you backing her to have a strong run in Madrid and win multiple titles this season?
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