The Miami Marlins are undergoing a major shakeup. After a front office overhaul, the team is now on a very clear path: a full-scale rebuild, which is a period of accumulating young talent and constructing a foundation for a sustainable contender for the future. The question is, of course, how on earth are they going to do that?
Since Peter Bendix took the helm as President, the team has aggressively dealt established major leaguers like Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Jesus Luzardo in exchange for promising prospects — including outfielder Jakob Marsee, catcher Agustin Ramirez, and shortstop Starlyn Caba. The addition of talents like Gabe Kapler and Vinesh Kanthan to the leadership is a sign that they will take a more modern, data-driven approach to player valuation and development. The consecutive event hinted that even a star like Sandy Alcantara could be on the horizon.
On the Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney Podcast, insider Ron Howard dropped a potential bombshell: “I feel like Sandy [Alcantara] is going to be able to receive a haul… he might be able to get 5 or 6 really, really good ball players.” Howard emphasized Alcantara’s relatively affordable contract and years of team control as key factors. He directly linked this potential trade to Bendix’s rebuilding strategy, suggesting the Marlins might be tempted by such a massive influx of young talent.
Howard’s “haul” prediction hinges on several factors. Alcantara is a former Cy Young winner with a team-friendly contract through 2026 (with a 2027 option). That’s enticing. However, his 2023 performance dipped, and he’s coming off Tommy John surgery, missing all of 2024. The injury risk is a significant asterisk. The “5 or 6 really good players” return seems highly optimistic, given the typical market for even healthy, elite pitchers.
Reality check: can Alcantara really fetch a king’s ransom?
Past trades of elite starting pitchers suggest a different reality. When the Nationals traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, they received two top prospects, not five or six. The Astros traded two top-four prospects of their organization for Justin Verlander. These deals illustrate that while quality pitching commands a premium, it’s usually a concentrated premium – a few top-tier prospects, not a grab bag of “really good” players. This creates doubts about the prediction.
Despite the injury concerns, Alcantara’s recovery progress has been encouraging. As far back as September 2024, there were reports of him reaching 99 m.p.h. during live batting practice. Spring training performance is never a perfect predictor of outcome, but this is at least a ray of hope that Alcantara can revert to his former, dominant self. This successful recovery from Tommy John surgery and Alcantara’s spring training glimmer is a sign of hope. Isn’t it?
The list of return history from Tommy John Surgery and stronger comeback in baseball is too long. There are several examples. Pitchers such as Shane McClanahan have returned to dominance post-op. Even the Cleveland Guardians have adopted a strategy of acquiring pitchers during their Tommy John recovery, gambling on their eventual return to form. This indicates that even though Alcantara’s injury is an alarm bell, it’s not a death knell for a show-stopper in terms of trade prospects.
Now the question is: Will the Marlins pull off a trade that defies expectations, or will a more measured approach prevail? Is this the right time to trade their ace, or is patience the ultimate virtue in this rebuild?
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