Naomi Osaka, a former world number one, narrowly avoided an early exit at the 2025 Miami Open, surviving a grueling R32 battle. In what became the longest women’s match of the tournament so far, clocking in at nearly three hours, Osaka’s frustration was palpable in the deciding set. Yet, with characteristic grit, she found a way to clinch victory and advance to the R16. Reflecting on her performance, Osaka noted, “This year I’ve played already a couple of scrappy matches. I think the fight kind of got me over it.” Now, the 2022 Miami finalist faces a formidable challenge in her next match: a Top 10 opponent, Jasmine Paolini. Can Osaka summon that same fighting spirit, or even elevate her game, to overcome this hurdle?
Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini: Preview
It has been a season full of ups and downs for the Japanese. She started the season by reaching the final at the ASB Classic, but her injuries became a major hindrance to her first title triumph in the 2025 season. Naomi Osaka gave a walkover to Clara Tauson in the final and then she witnessed a similar fate in the R3 of the Australian Open as well.
Osaka suffered an early exit from the Indian Wells, but she came back strongly in Miami. She is currently on a three-match winning streak and the Japanese star will be entering this contest following her hard-fought 7-6(6),3-6,6-4 win over America’s Hailey Baptiste in the R32.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 27: Naomi Osaka of Japan in action against Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia in the first round on Day 2 of the US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on August 27, 2024 in New York City (Photo by Robert Prange/Getty Images)
On the other hand, her opponent in the next round, Jasmine Paolini, advanced to the R16 after Ons Jabeur, trailing 4-3, retired with a left leg injury. Paolini has struggled to perform this season, and this was her first win over a Top 30 player after five consecutive losses. This will be her fourth R16 appearance in this season. How special is it for the Italian, though? “In Miami it is. Happy to be in the fourth round — never won two matches here,” said Paolini. Can she take it further?
Osaka vs Paolini: Head-to-Head
Both Naomi Osaka and Jasmine Paolini have vast experience on the women’s tour, but interestingly, this will be their first meeting. Hence, their H2H record is currently 0-0.
Prediction: Naomi Osaka to win in three sets
Prepare for a potentially grueling encounter in the R16, as all signs point towards Naomi Osaka being pushed to a third set for the third time at this Miami Open.
While Osaka, currently ranked 61st, holds a slightly favorable 9-3 win-loss record this season compared to Paolini’s 10-5, and her historical success on this surface adds another layer to her advantage, we’d be remiss to underestimate the tenacious spirit of Jasmine Paolini, ranked 7th.
The Italian is a renowned fighter and hustler, guaranteeing Osaka will be kept on high alert from the first serve to the last.
Examining their playing styles, Paolini brings a dynamic aggression to the court, fueled by powerful groundstrokes, particularly her formidable forehand. Her agility and speed allow her to outmaneuver opponents effectively, proving that height isn’t everything on the women’s tour. Coupled with her solid all-around game and sharp anticipation, Paolini possesses the tools to make this a very challenging match for Osaka.
On the other side of the net, Naomi Osaka brings her signature power and aggression, built around a thunderous serve and a commanding forehand. Her strong two-handed backhand and impressive athleticism make her a formidable opponent for anyone. Beyond the raw power, Osaka’s unwavering grit and determination to win those extended rallies could be the deciding factor in this contest.
Considering all these compelling factors – the contrasting styles, Paolini’s fighting spirit, and Osaka’s proven track record – my prediction leans towards the four-time Grand Slam champion navigating what is sure to be a captivating battle.
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