Monte Carlo Masters 2025: Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti ; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

Italian tennis fans might be missing their World No. 1, Jannik Sinner, in Monte Carlo this week, but the other Italian tennis players are giving them everything to root for. Lorenzo Musetti might have reasonably expected a third-round clash with top seed Alexander Zverev. Instead, he’ll find himself looking across the net at a familiar face – fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini. Berrettini pulled off arguably the biggest surprise of the tournament so far, stunning Zverev in a gritty three-setter, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5. This wasn’t just any win; it marks the first time the 28-year-old has ever beaten a player ranked in the world’s top two. Fresh off this monumental achievement, he now faces his younger compatriot, Musetti, in a match guaranteed to send one Italian into the quarter-finals. Who will take it? Let’s find out all the details!

Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti: Preview

Could this be the week Matteo Berrettini truly announces his return? After a frustratingly long period hampered by injuries, the signs are increasingly positive. His recent form has been quietly encouraging. He pushed World No. 4 Taylor Fritz hard in a three-set tussle at the Miami Open (losing 5-7, 7-6(7), 5-7). Before that, quarter-final appearances in Dubai and Qatar, ending in losses to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jack Draper respectively, hinted that his level was returning. Now, adding wins against Mariano Navone and, crucially, the tournament’s top seed Zverev here in Monte Carlo, Berrettini’s confidence must be soaring.

On the other side, Lorenzo Musetti hasn’t quite found his groove in the 2025 season yet. His progress was stalled by a calf injury that forced him out of action for a spell, meaning he’s still searching for his first semi-final of the year. His season started decently with a quarter-final in Hong Kong, followed by a third-round exit at the Australian Open. The injury then forced withdrawals from the quarter-finals in Argentina and the Rio Open altogether. The 23-year-old returned for the Indian Wells/Miami “Sunshine Double” but couldn’t make significant inroads. However, clay is often where Musetti comes alive. His wins here against Yunchaokete Bu and Jiri Lehecka suggest he might be finding his footing on his preferred surface just in time.

Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti: Head-to-Head

This all-Italian battle will be the third time these two have faced off professionally. Their previous encounters are split, adding another layer of intrigue:

2024 ATP 250 Stuttgart Open Semi-final (Grass): Berrettini won 6-4, 6-0
2022 ATP 250 Napoli Open Final (Hard): Musetti won 7-6(5), 6-2

Prediction: Matteo Berrettini in three sets

After the biggest win of his career by ranking, Matteo Berrettini surely has his eyes on a maiden quarter-final here in Monte Carlo. His huge serve and forehand were clicking against Zverev, proving effective on the demanding clay and giving him massive belief.

Of course, Musetti is dangerous, especially on this surface. The 23-year-old’s a natural clay-courter with great touch and that flowing one-handed backhand. Remember his impressive run to the quarterfinals here in 2023, when he stunned Novak Djokovic in the round of 16? Musetti knows how to construct points on clay and will definitely test Berrettini’s backhand. He’s also reached this round for the fourth year running, showing his comfort here.

Even so, the 28-year-old’s current level and the sheer confidence boost from beating Zverev feel decisive right now. Musetti has the clay skills and history here, but Berrettini is riding a huge wave. Expect a battle, but Berrettini likely takes it.

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