Ole Miss has a storied lineage with quarterbacks. The great Archie Manning once donned the iconic red and navy jersey. He went No. 2 in the 1971 NFL Draft. Later, his youngest son took the honor. Eli Manning’s tenure with the Rebels was gloriously successful before going No. 1 overall in 2004. Over 20 years later, a very worthy successor laid claim to this proverbial throne down in Mississippi. Jaxson Dart is, statistically, the most successful quarterback in program history. He overtook the yards record from Eli himself down the stretch this season. Yet, he’s not quite viewed in the same upper echelons from an NFL lens, unlike his predecessors.
When their future SEC contemporaries Oklahoma lost coach Lincoln Riley to USC in 2021, it was a double blessing for Ole Miss. Not only did it fluster a competitor, but it also led to the dominoes falling for Jaxson Dart’s arrival in Mississippi. Dart was a revelation for the Rebels. He progressively got better each year. Last season, he even found himself on the periphery of the Heisman discussion. Playing under offensive-minded HC Lane Kiffin elevated Dart’s game. But it exacted a hefty cost on his future in the pros.
The consensus is that Dart is not going to be a Day 1 pick off the board come April. This stems from multi-faceted reasoning. While most of Dart’s projected draft grade is down to his perceived talent and tangibles, one such facet is out of his control – Lane Kiffin’s history of developing NFL-caliber quarterbacks is a potential hindrance. The reason Kiffin-developed QBs don’t convert on the next level is because of his RPO, or Run, Pass, Option, and heavy offensive scheming. Sure, it works brilliantly on the collegiate level. But the D-coordinators in the NFL are a notch above at cracking it since it’s somewhat simplistic. Matt Corral springs to mind as an example. Players get comfortable in the system and can’t quite snap out of it. That said, one person thinks there are issues with Jaxson Dart that go beyond the versatility.
Speaking over the Cleveland Browns on Cleveland.com YouTube channel, Jake Burns broke down some Jaxson Dart film. While he came to a fairly positive assessment, a couple of things made him hesitant to endorse the Browns going down that route in the draft. “I don’t think the deep b–l is a particular strength of his. It’s inconsistent at times. I think it can get a little drifty,” said Burns. This is intriguing since Jaxson Dart averaged the most yards per pass in the FBS last season (10.8). That stat is inclusive of some big-time lasers downfield. The other flaw Burns picked, however, is a byproduct of the aforementioned Kiffin system.
“I do also think he’s, of the three, the worst ‘processing guy’ in terms of speed of finding answers 1, 2, and 3 and getting to the backside consistently,” he said. The other two QBs being referred to in this trifecta are Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. Both of whom are expected to go top 10 overall, conservatively. Since the Browns hold the #2 overall pick, the comparison is fair. It’s about evaluating whether Dart is a good alternative in the later rounds so that Cleveland can pick a different position in round 1. The bad “processing” of Jaxson Dart going through his throwing options before the pocket breaks down can happen due to a habitual nature developed by running RPO frequently.
For a quarterback projected to be a Day 2 pick, imperfections are to be expected. Dart likely gets sat his rookie year by any team that drafts him. He’s got enough for someone to take a shot at him. But not enough to thrust him under center off the bat against NFL defenses. The Seattle Seahawks were another franchise reportedly in the running for Dart. However, their big free-agency moves all but end that possibility.
Jaxson Dart’s doorway to the Seahawks slams close, but another opens
Of all the wrinkles and results in the first wave of free agency, the Seahawks were the most prominent. They signed the top available QB, Sam Darnold, to a three-year deal north of $100 million. Darnold became available when the 14-win Vikings chose to let him walk after plugging him in as their QB1 last season. They’d rather maximize the rookie-scale contract of first-round pick and National Champ J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan. But Darnold’s availability was widely expected. What wasn’t expected was for the Seahawks to be in the QB market outside of the Draft. It came about when they traded Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders.
This QB carousel means a couple of franchises are now out of the Ward-Sanders-Dart sweepstakes. The Raiders were essentially a shoo-in to draft a QB with the #6 pick. Now, that has changed. New HC Pete Carroll gets reunited with his former signal caller in Geno. But the Raiders could still draft a quarterback. Geno is no spring chicken at 34. Drafting someone to have them learn the ropes from a veteran could be a shrewd move. If this trade closes the door for someone like Shedeur Sanders, it opens another for a Jaxson Dart. With Tom Brady running the show in Vegas, a QB is surely getting picked at some point across the 3 days of the draft. It would well be Dart, who’s competing with a bunch of adversaries with similar draft stock.
As for the Seahawks, their drafting becomes more difficult to foresee. But hey, who saw the Atlanta Falcons going Michael Penix Jr.? The symmetry between signing a Vikings QB to big money and then still drafting a QB is right there. *Coughs* Kirk Cousins. As for alternatives, the Jets could still go QB after handing Justin Fields a prove-it deal that doesn’t quantify into being a ‘guaranteed starter’ when you see the figures. A few routes have closed, but a lot remains wide open. Jaxson Dart will just hope he lands in an environment conducive to growth. With a vet, he can learn off. Those are qualities the Browns don’t have anyway. He likely won’t stress Jake Burns’ verdict.
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