With one race left before the NASCAR Playoffs, the pressure is boiling over. Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman are battling for survival, and Chris Buescher needs a miracle at Daytona. A NASCAR insider has warned, one wrong move, and it’s all over.
The playoff picture is tighter than ever, and Daytona’s unpredictability only adds fuel to the fire. Reddick’s consistency has kept him afloat, but Bowman’s recent surge has made things complicated. Meanwhile, Buescher’s camp is banking on bold strategy and a little luck.
Steve Letarte sounds off on potential last-place playoff holder
Alex Bowman delivered a strong performance at Richmond, finishing a solid second behind Austin Dillon after a late race charge. He ran through traffic and closed the gap. His runner-up finish marked his sixth top five of the season and his 14th top 10 at Richmond, reinforcing his consistency. That result was huge for Bowman, currently holding the final provisional playoff spot.
He gained 28 points on Tyler Reddick at Richmond, yet still trails by 29 points for 15th, underscoring how tight the cut-off is before the final regular season race at Daytona. With 14 winners are now locked in, and Bowman remains vulnerable should a new driver win at Daytona. On the other hand, Tyler looked set for a dominant Richmond night.
He qualified second and won Stage 1. However, his night unraveled in Stage 2, and contact between Daniel Suarez and Ty Gibbs spun Reddick into the wall, ending his momentum and sending him into a disheartening 34th-place finish. Despite this stumble, Reddick still clings to the provisional playoff, as he remains 29 points ahead of Alex Bowman.
However, with only two spots left and Daytona looming, his berth isn’t secure. And a new winner at Daytona would automatically bump someone without a victory out. Reflecting on the playoff realities, NASCAR’s format awards spots first to race winners up to 16 and then fills the remaining slots with points.
NBC analyst Steve Letarte cut through the drama succinctly. He said, “Yeah. So we don’t want to make some hyperbole and say, oh, it’s a 50, 50 chance. No, there isn’t. It’s a one in four chance. We’re going to have a new winner. A lot of great cars have already won. I think there’s a better chance we have a new winner than Bowman makes up 29 points on Reddick. Yeah. I think 29 points is basically insurmountable unless Reddick wrecks early.”
Moreover, Steve assessed the odds, about a 25% chance for a completely new winner to come and shake up the playoffs. But as the battle between these two intensifies, Chris Buescher is also in the mix. Chris’s playoff hopes in 2025 remain in jeopardy after a rocky regular season marked by inconsistency and misfortune.
Despite showing flashes of speed at times, the RFK driver has struggled to convert strong runs into victories, leaving him without a win as the playoffs approaches and sitting outside the cut line.
14 drivers are locked into the Playoffs heading into the regular season finale at Daytona.
Do we see a new winner punch their ticket? pic.twitter.com/b1GTIUIEwP
— Steve Letarte (@SteveLetarte) August 17, 2025
Steve speculates, “And I would say there’s a really good chance starting stage three that we can rubber-stamp Reddick because if Bowman doesn’t score 15 or 18 points better than Reddick in the stages, there’s just not enough points available. Or if we have a big wreck early.”
At Daytona International Speedway, Alex Bowman clearly holds the edge over Tyler Reddick when it comes to historical performance. Bowman’s average finish at Daytona since 2022 stands at 10.4 across seven races. Specifically, in the 2025 event, his finishes include sixth in the Daytona 500 and another sixth in the subsequent Cup race.
Conversely, Reddick’s average finish at the same track across 12 races is 23.0, though he did post a strong second-place result earlier this year, demonstrating that while he is capable of standout performance, his results tend to be far more variable. Overall, Bowman’s consistency gives him a significantly better statistical chance heading into Daytona.
Tyler Reddick sounds off on his playoff hopes after his worst-case-scenario Richmond race
Tyler Reddick started strong at Richmond Raceway, putting together the kind of opening stage he needed in the NASCAR Cup Series race. But before the second stage was complete, his night took a disastrous turn. After qualifying second in his 23XI Racing Toyota, Reddick passed pole sitter Ryan Preece on lap 59 and pulled away from the pack.
However, in stage two, Reddick continued discharging, reclaiming the lead on lap 139 before giving way to teammate Bubba Wallace. But just 17 laps later, while running fourth, chaos struck. Contact between Daniel Suarez and Ty Gibbs sent the latter into Reddick’s car, spinning him into the outside wall in turn four.
The heavy left-side damage turned one of the fastest cars on the track into one of the slowest. Reddick was never a factor again, ending the night in 34th after leading 41 laps. The timing couldn’t have been worse, with the playoff grid set to be finalized next week at Daytona. Reddick remains the highest driver on the provisional list without a win, but his spot is far from secure.
His hold of 29 points over Alex Bowman, the final driver above the cut line, is in danger. A new winner at Daytona could put both in jeopardy.
Reflecting on his playoff hopes, he said, “It was pretty much the worst-case scenario for us. When you have a Toyota Camry as fast as ours is, you need to score the points. (bowman) scored a lot of points and (Austin Dillon) won. So all in all, it was pretty much worst-case scenario. Yeah, we can thank Daniel Suarez for that.”
Suarez salvaged a P7 finish, his fifth top 10 of the year, but after the incident, he may now find himself with the target on his back from Reddick and the 23XI racing team.
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