Paul Skenes was supposed to be the crown jewel of the 2025 National League Cy Young race. The Pittsburgh Pirates phenom who took baseball by storm and finished third in last year’s voting seemed destined for his first hardware. But this golden boy is suddenly looking over his shoulder at a Phillies veteran who’s torching the competition. This isn’t just any challenger—this guy’s been waiting his turn, building momentum while Skenes stumbles through hard-luck losses.
Enter Zack Wheeler, and the guy’s been cooking. With a 9-3 record and an average game score of 65.2, Wheeler has positioned himself as the main challenger to Skenes’ throne. The 35-year-old right-hander is sitting pretty at 148 AXE rating, just two points behind Skenes’ 150. Well, you know what they say about veterans who smell blood in the water—they don’t mess around.
Now, Wheeler isn’t just close; he’s actually ahead in some key metrics. His MLB-best 16-3 record using the revised game score method dwarfs Paul Skenes’ 11-9 mark. The temperature ratings tell an even more compelling story—Wheeler’s blazing at 127.2 degrees while Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees after his recent struggles.
It makes sense when you consider Wheeler’s been the more consistent performer this season, even if the raw numbers don’t show the full picture.
This isn’t Wheeler’s first rodeo with Cy Young drama either. Last season, he finished as the runner-up to Chris Sale, a painful reminder of how close he came to claiming his first hardware. The sting of that second-place finish might have motivated him this season, and his teammates have noticed the edge in his preparation.
But none of it means Skenes have gone mellow…
Paul Skenes makes All-Star history at Truist Park
But here’s the thing about Skenes’ legendary All-Star performance—it might go against him now. That historic night at Truist Park, when he threw 100 mph heat and struck out elite hitters. Well, expectations skyrocketed after that display, and suddenly every start needed to be masterful.
Skenes didn’t just pitch in the All-Star Game—he rewrote the record books with pure velocity, becoming the first starting pitcher in the Statcast era to throw four pitches at 100 mph or higher. That performance put him in exclusive company with legends like Frank Robinson and Joe DiMaggio as one of only five players to start consecutive All-Star Games in their first two seasons.
Image: MLB.com
The weight of those expectations might be crushing. Every outing may now get measured against that perfect All-Star inning where he dominated with 12 four-seam fastballs and left fans stunned. When you set the bar that high, even great performances feel ordinary. The rookie sensation might now deal with the burden of his own excellence.
Meanwhile, Wheeler’s been quietly building his case without the spotlight pressure. While everyone’s watching Skenes trying to recapture that All-Star magic, the Phillies veteran has been consistently delivering quality starts and racking up wins. Sometimes the best way to win a race is to let your opponent stumble under their expectations.
Think Wheeler will grab the title this year?
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