“Tonight, we put on a potential greatest fight ever in the division’s history.” Those were the words of UFC CEO Dana White when Brandon Moreno stepped into the Octagon against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 256. Moreover, the quadrilogy between the former champs was a much-needed boost of fresh energy into a division that has always been plagued with fan disdain and lack of interest. Now, as UFC returns to Mexico on March 29, 2025, one of the participants of that game-changing saga will make his return to the Octagon.
After traveling to London last weekend, the promotion would look to make its mark in the iconic city of Mexico with Fight Night 256. And with the headliner featuring the aforementioned Moreno and former title challenger Steve Erceg, the energy is expected to be nothing short of unforgettable. Moreno is riding high after a statement win over Amir Albazi, while Erceg looks to bounce back from consecutive losses and prove he still belongs among the division’s elite. So, ahead of this anticipated flyweight clash, let’s have a look at the numbers and predictions!
UFC Mexico: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg stats
Numbers don’t lie, so let’s break them down. Steve Erceg has proven his versatility inside the Octagon with one knockout, and two decision wins in his UFC tenure. However, his momentum has stalled in his previous two outings with back-to-back losses against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 301 and then being knocked out by Kai Kara France at UFC 305 in his hometown of Perth. That defeat, which sent his record to 12-3-0, raised questions about his durability to compete at the highest level.
When compared to ‘The Assassin Baby’, the experience gap becomes clear. Brandon Moreno boasts four KO/TKO wins and 3 submissions across his 17 UFC fights—making him the far more seasoned competitor. Moreno returned to the win column in style, securing a dominant, unanimous decision victory over Amir Albazi. The victory came after back-to-back losses against Brandon Royval and Alexandre Pantoja, but now, Moreno is once again knocking on the door of title contention. A win on March 29 could set him up for a long-awaited shot at reclaiming his flyweight throne from the man who took it—the Brazilian juggernaut at UFC 290.
Now, after nearly seven months away from the Octagon, he’s looking to reset and prove he still belongs among the division’s elite. With a record of 22-8-2, #2-ranked Moreno has his sights set on building a winning streak and inching closer to another title shot. Meanwhile, #8-ranked Erceg is fighting to break free from his slump and reestablish himself as a serious contender.
Erceg holds a slight edge in striking accuracy at 49% compared to Moreno’s 44%, setting the stage for an explosive stand-up battle. But numbers don’t account for the intangibles—Moreno’s grit, fight IQ, and ability to thrive under pressure. On top of that, Erceg has nearly 4 strikes landed per minute with Moreno also putting on a similar pressure landed per minute. Meanwhile, for ‘The Assassin Baby’, strikes absorbed per minute stand at around 3 in comparison to almost 4 for the Aussie. Now, let’s head to the fight breakdown and our official predictions.
Moreno vs. Erceg breakdown and prediction
Erceg is a well-rounded fighter with good boxing and grappling laced with a calculated approach. This composure was the key for the Aussie to go all five rounds with a dangerous champion like Alexandre Pantoja. However, when it comes to submissions and skills on the feet, he does not meet what Moreno brings to the table. As the first Mexican-born UFC champion, Moreno isn’t just another fighter—he’s a symbol of resilience, and defeating him won’t be an easy task. And this was on full display when he dominated Albazi and Kai Kara France on the feet (a guy who knocked Erceg.)
Erceg has spent the last three weeks training in Mexico to adjust to the high altitude, ensuring he has the cardio to go the distance. Still, stepping into Arena CDMX on March 29, 2025, means walking straight into enemy territory. The Mexican’s experience with such high-pressure scenarios will help him have the upper hand against the Aussie flyweight fighter.
On the other hand, Erceg does have the potential but is still a rookie in the upper echelons. So, we are putting our bets on Brandon Moreno to pick up the win at UFC Mexico. With the raucous crowd behind their hometown hero, the Aussie is facing the toughest test of his career. Will he rise to the occasion, or will Moreno remind the world why he was—and could be again—a UFC champion?
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