Do you remember what Paul Finebaum said about Lincoln Riley after they wrapped up the 2024 season? “Would someone in California explain to me why Lincoln Riley, as of almost noon, is still the head coach of (USC)? What has he done? He had the one season with Caleb Williams. Last year, I thought that was a disaster, but then again, I forgot about this season.” Walking into the 2025 season, Riley’s seat is getting hot. While the head coach’s buyout figures are doing the rounds, will it be easy for USC to get rid of Riley? That’s where the pressure is building up for the Trojans’ AD. Meanwhile, Riley has already taken a risk with a six-figure recruitment drive. But confusions loom there too.
The pitchforks were out for Riley after the Trojans’ lacklustre season under him. They dropped their final regular-season game of the year 49-35, to No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. That’s when the biggest issue that has been plaguing the Trojans’ camp came up: coaching. After that game, Riley was 14-11 in the last 25 games. The ceiling was high, after all, it marked their first year as a Big Ten program, and they wrapped it with a 7-6 overall record.
It hurts more because two years ago, everything felt right about USC. Riley won 11 games at USC football in 2022. Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy. The Trojans played in the Pac-12 Championship Game. But gone are those days. As per DraftKings, the Trojans have -118 odds to win over 7.5 games in 2025. Now the question remains, how long can Riley hold the Trojans’ steering wheel?
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On the May 29th episode of the CFB ON FOX podcast, host Colin Cowherd dished out an important question. “I know the buyout’s extensive. But I mean, most of your great coaches turn it around in year two, especially with a transfer portal. We don’t know if Lincoln’s a culture builder. We know he knows offense. What if he goes 8-5? Does he last?” As per ESPN’s Pete Thamel’s report, Riley carries a buyout of approximately $90 million. That’s when the pressure keeps mounting on the Trojans’ AD, Jennifer Cohen. As Bruce Feldman shared, “Now, the buyout is enormous. That is a deal that the old regime did, that Jen Cohen got stuck with. And you wonder, where will the money come from? This isn’t Texas A&M, where they got Jimbo Fisher out.”
Texas A&M had to dish out $77.6 million to Jimbo Fisher as a buyout. Well, Cohen does not need outside competition to turn on the pressure. The Trojans themselves got rid of Clay Helton in 2021. His buyout was in the $12 million range. However, it won’t be easy to emulate in Riley’s case. “But we’re talking about a buyout that’s going to be around $80 million, in that range. Are people going to step up to pay that kind of money?… The athletic department, I feel like, is in a big transition mode. And it just doesn’t feel like they’ve ever been able to get momentum after the first year when Caleb was there, and they had a good run. And then all of a sudden, it started to backslide.” Even the head coach is likely to hit roadblocks on the recruiting trail.
Can Lincoln Riley get the final signatures?
As per On3’s 2026 Industry Ranking football Team Recruiting Rankings, Riley’s program now holds the No.2 rank with ten 3-stars, sixteen 4-stars. They now have an NIL figure of $123K in hand. However, these commitments do not mean anything. Given the current landscape, the players commit to one program, only to finally anchor their boat somewhere else. “They have a really good recruiting class as of right now. How many of those kids end up signing with USC? To me, that’s a big piece. And if you’re not a top 15, top 20 team, and Georgia or Ohio State come back in on those recruits, then do they end up coming here? Because the way I look at it, right now, there is not a lot of momentum at USC…this is not like a very, very talented USC team,” Feldman pointed out.
While Riley is yet to win the recruits’ hearts, they have already started to lose the fans’ hearts. The reason? As things currently stand, the community is rife with whispers of an unceremonious end to the tradition. Going by the reports, Riley has shown reluctance to continue with the USC-Notre Dame face-off. They have offered a one-year extension to play in Los Angeles in 2026. Now, this did not fit well with Josh Pate, and he did not mince his words and straightaway threw a shade at Riley.
“The head coach at USC should never have the power to influence whether they play Notre Dame or not every year, the AD…because they come and go. We’ve had dozens of head coaches and athletic directors at these respective institutions, and yet they’ve played this game 95 times since 1924.” That’s how the last-chance narrative is springing up for Lincoln Riley. When USC hired him, it was the largest contract in coaching at $10.1 million. Can he live up to his hype in 2025?
The post USC AD Forced to Pay for Trojans’ Regretful Past as Six-Figure Recruitment Question Looms Over Lincoln Riley’s Future appeared first on EssentiallySports.
