Who Will Win $1 Million Whitney Stakes? Underdog Trumps Breeders’ Cup Winner in Early Odds

Looks like the 2025 Whitney Stakes is gearing up to be one of the most exciting horse races of the summer! This Grade 1 event takes place at Saratoga Race Course and boasts a whopping $1 million purse, attracting the top older horses in training. With the exciting mid-summer showdown just around the corner, a group of top-notch competitors — featuring several Breeders’ Cup winners and some up-and-coming stars — is ready to take on a challenging 1 1/8-mile race that will really put their speed, stamina, and racing smarts to the test.

There are eight millionaires in the mix, and we’ve got some big names like Sierra Leone, White Abarrio, and Fierceness. It’s no wonder the 2025 edition is creating a lot of excitement in the racing world! Fans and bettors are really getting into past performances, pace scenarios, and trainer patterns to find that winning edge.

So, while the usual favorites are getting all the attention, it looks like there’s one horse that could surprise everyone and shake things up in the older male division. Early odds and expert picks are hinting at this possibility.

Earlier today on X, racing analyst Matthew DeSantis shared his final picks, and while he agreed with the betting public that Fierceness is the likely winner, his rankings of the other contenders definitely raised some eyebrows. DeSantis believes that Highland Falls, the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner trained by Brad Cox, is all set for a big performance and might just surpass some of the bigger names like Sierra Leone and White Abarrio.

DeSantis has Highland Falls in second place, putting it ahead of Sierra Leone in third and White Abarrio in fourth for Race 11 (G1 Whitney Stakes) at the Saratoga Race Course today. That’s quite a bold call, especially since both of the favorites have already won Breeders’ Cup titles. It’s really not a shock that DeSantis has Sierra Leone ranked lower than Highland Falls, considering he’s had some pretty critical things to say about the colt in the past.

Whitney Day picks at #Saratoga

R1: 1/1A-2-7-5
R2: 6-1-2-4
R3: 6-1
R4: 10-4-1-8
R5: 4-9-2-1
R6: 4-1/1A-8-2
R7: 5-11-7-3
R8: 6-1-3-4
R9: 7-3-5-9
R10: 1-3-6-4
R11: 9-3-5-7
R12: 12-1-5-10
R13: 2-10-7-5

Make sure to play your best bet on @NYRABets. #HorseRacingTips #HorseRacing

— Matthew DeSantis (@failedtomenace) August 2, 2025

DeSantis recently explained that while Sierra Leone has been remarkably consistent, his performances at Saratoga raise questions, stating, “Second in the Derby, third in the Belmont, second in the Jim Dandy, third in the Travers. He’s run at Saratoga three times. He’s lost three times. He’s been the favorite three times. He’s burned money three times. Maybe the fourth time’s the charm. Maybe, but a 2-1 with a horse that is trip- and distance-dependent and pace-dependent, I’d rather not take that chance.” Absolutely, DeSantis has chosen Highland Falls for a specific reason. So, what’s the backstory on the favorite for the 2025 Whitney Stakes?

He is ready to conquer the Whitney Stakes

Fierceness really made waves in 2023 with an incredible performance in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, winning by more than six lengths and establishing himself as the leading two-year-old in the country. The colt, trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Repole Stable, was named the Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Male for that season.

For sure, there were big hopes for the colt, but he faced some significant obstacles during his three-year-old season. Even though Fierceness had a tough time finishing 15th in the Kentucky Derby, he really showed his determination and style during the summer. He really took charge in the G1 Florida Derby that spring and proved the naysayers wrong by coming back to Saratoga to win both the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes in July and the G1 Travers Stakes in August 2024.

In 2025, Fierceness came back as a four-year-old and quickly grabbed attention by breaking a track record in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs, finishing the race in 1:40.66 over 1 1/16 miles. We’ll just have to wait and see how he does against the other horses at the Saratoga Race Course today in the Whitney Stakes.

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